共同富裕水平测度与时空演进格局分析  

Measurement of Common Prosperity Level and Analysis of Spatiotemporal Evolution Pattern

作　　者：高鹤鹏 宋玉冰 丘斌 陆九天 Gao Hepeng;Song Yubing;Qiu Bin;Lu Jiutian(Economics Teaching and Research Department,Party School of the Central Committee of C.P.C(National Academy of Governance),Beijing 100091,China;School of Management,Ocean University of China,Qingdao Shandong 266100,China;School of Marxism,Foshan University,Foshan Guangdong 528051,China;School of Marxism,Jiangsu University,Zhenjiang Jiangsu 212013,China)

机构地区：[1]中央党校(国家行政学院)经济学教研部,北京100091 [2]中国海洋大学管理学院,山东青岛266100 [3]佛山大学马克思主义学院,广东佛山528051 [4]江苏大学马克思主义学院,江苏镇江212013

出　　处：《统计与决策》2024年第13期16-21,共6页Statistics & Decision

摘　　要：文章运用主成分分析法进行降维合成,测算了2008—2021年中国30个省份的共同富裕水平。采用泰尔指数、莫兰指数、核密度估计和马尔可夫区制转移概率矩阵,分析了共同富裕水平的区域差异、空间自相关特征、时间演进特征及动态演进规律。结果显示,各省份共同富裕水平在2008—2021年整体上呈现上升趋势,并且在2021年绝大部分省份的共同富裕水平已成为正值;从区域差异来看,全国共同富裕水平的总体差异呈波动下降趋势;从空间自相关特征来看,各省份共同富裕水平具有明显的正向空间自相关特征,并且这种相关性在地理位置相近的省份以及经济发展水平类似的省份之间都表现得十分明显;从时间演进特征来看,东部、中部和西部地区的核密度曲线分别呈现多峰分布、相对平缓和主峰右移的特征;从动态演进规律来看,各省份共同富裕水平所属的等级具有较高的稳定性,跃迁主要发生在相邻等级的省份之间。This paper uses principal component analysis(PCA)to synthesize dimension reduction,then estimates the common prosperity level of 30 provinces in China from 2008 to 2021,and finally uses Theil index,Moran’s index,kernel density estimation method and Markov transfer probability matrix to analyze the regional difference,spatial autocorrelation characteristics,time evolution characteristics and dynamic evolution law of common prosperity level.The results go as the following:The common prosperity level of all provinces shows an upward trend from 2008 to 2021,and that of most provinces becomes positive in 2021.From the perspective of regional differences,the overall difference of China’s common prosperity level shows a trend of fluctuation and decline.From the perspective of spatial autocorrelation characteristics,the common prosperity level of all provinces has obvious positive spatial autocorrelation characteristics,and this correlation is evident between provinces that are geographically close to each other and provinces with similar levels of economic development.From the perspective of temporal evolution characteristics,the kernel density curves in eastern,central and western regions present the characteristics of multi-peak distribution,relatively flat,and the main peak shifting to the right.From the perspective of dynamic evolution law,the common prosperity level of each province has high stability,and the level transition mainly occurs between adjacent levels.

关 键 词：共同富裕 主成分分析 区域差异 时空演进格局 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F126