生态带共建视域下京津冀地区减污降碳协同效应研究  

Synergistic Effects of Carbon-Pollutant Reduction in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region under Ecological Belt Co-Construction

作　　者：曾雪婷[1,2] 张馨予 张寿全[1] 安贤娟 王文铎 王超 ZENG Xueting;ZHANG Xinyu;ZHANG Shouquan;AN Xianjuan;WANG Wenduo;WANG Chao(Research Center for Sustainable Management of Resources and Ecological Environment,Capital University of Economic and Business,Beijing 100012,China;School of Labor Economics,Capital University of Economic and Business,Beijing 100012,China)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学资源与生态环境可持续管理研究中心,北京100012 [2]首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院,北京100012

出　　处：《环境科学研究》2024年第7期1458-1469,共12页Research of Environmental Sciences

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金项目一般项目(No.23GLB026)。

摘　　要：京津冀地区碳污(大气中碳排放和污染物排放)排放量与环境承载力极不匹配,区域环境协同治理虽可以从排放端缓解碳污超排压力,但减排潜能不足仍需引入“自然适应”方式提升环境治理效率。基于此,该研究在测度碳污排放量基础上,使用Copula模型对京津冀地区碳污协同风险进行识别,并结合区域生态带类型及其碳污吸收特征,对碳污排放和吸收匹配关系进行动态分析;同时以京津冀地区共建度为主要影响因素,逐渐增加京津冀地区生态带规模,分别设置基准、保守、折中、激进共4类10个情景进行模拟,分析不同共建水平下绿色生态带与净碳污排放量间的互动博弈关系。结果表明:①2011-2019年,京津冀地区大气中碳排放量波动上升并在2018年达到最大值(1323.164 Mt),污染物排放量波动下降并在2015年达到最大值(402.9×10^(4) t)。尽管京津冀地区污染物排放风险有所降低,但碳排放风险并未随之降低。②京津冀地区13个城市碳污排放量大于生态带碳污吸收量,其中保定市、张家口市、承德市符合减污降碳发展方向,唐山市、天津市、石家庄市、邯郸市、北京市与减污降碳方向相反,秦皇岛市、沧州市、廊坊市、衡水市、邢台市属于“低排低吸”类型。③各情景模拟中,激进情景下碳污排放综合风险值最小,为0.055;S0情景下碳污排放综合风险值最大,为0.648,情景模拟发现绿色生态带共建可以有效提高减污降碳效能,从而降低京津冀地区净排放量,且共建水平越高越符合减污降碳发展目标。研究显示,京津冀地区13个城市碳污平衡匹配关系不稳定,虽然京津冀地区生态带共建可以在一定程度上缓解碳污超排问题,但加大协同治理力度仍是减污降碳的重要途径。There is a huge mismatch between carbon and pollution emissions and environmental carrying capacity in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Although cross-regional cooperative environmental governance can alleviate the pressure of excessive carbon-pollutant emissions on the emission side,due to the insufficient emission reduction potential,‘natural adaptation’approach needs to be introduced to improve the efficiency of environmental management.Based on the measurement of carbon and pollution emissions,the Copula model can be used to identify the synergy risk of carbon and pollution emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Meanwhile,the dynamic matching relationship between carbon-pollutant emission scale and ecological belt absorption capacity can be analyzed,based on combining the types of regional ecological zones and their purifying characteristics.Based on the co-construction level of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the scale of the ecological belt in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is gradually increased.A total of 10 scenarios in 4 categories(including namely,baseline,conservative,compromise,and aggressive)were simulated to analyze the interactive game relationship between green ecological zones and net carbon emissions under different levels of co-production.The results show:(1)From 2011 to 2019,the carbon emissions fluctuated up and reached the maximum value of 1323.164 Mt in 2018,and the pollution emission fluctuated down and reached the maximum value of 402.9×10^(4)t in 2015.Although the risk of pollution emission in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has reduced,the risk of carbon emissions have not decreased accordingly.(2)Carbon emissions of 13 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are greater than the carbon absorption of the ecological zone.Among them,Baoding,Zhangjiakou and Chengde are in line with the direction of carbon reduction and emission reduction.Tangshan,Tianjin,Shijiazhuang,Handan and Beijing are in the opposite direction of carbon reduction and emission reduction.Qinhuangdao,

关 键 词：减污降碳 Copula模型风险分析 生态带共建 

分 类 号：X821[环境科学与工程—环境工程]