碳排放清单在天然气场站应用的不确定性研究  

Research on the uncertainty of carbon emission inventories in the application of natural gas stations

作　　者：马孝亮[1] 汪怡心 孙金旺 李佳轩 曹世宇 MA Xiaoliang;WANG Yixin;SUN Jinwang;LI Jiaxuan;CAO Shiyu(Tarim Oilfield Company,CNPC)

机构地区：[1]中国石油天然气股份有限公司塔里木油田分公司

出　　处：《石油石化节能与计量》2024年第7期120-125,共6页Energy Conservation and Measurement in Petroleum & Petrochemical Industry

摘　　要：温室气体清单编制指南为有效推进节能减排措施提供了重要参考和政策支撑,但目前各清单标准不一、推荐缺省值的偏差是碳排放计算误差的主要来源。从计算方法的角度建立研究排放清单不确定性的模型,通过对比采用蒙特卡洛模拟法和拉丁超立方抽样法对不确定性因素进行模拟的结果;提出采用消减技术找到具有代表性典型数据的方法,改善仅采用平均值计算碳排放量带来的误差。将模型应用于阿克苏管理站2022年碳排放计算中,依据不同清单计算造成的碳排放不确定度在1%~4%,采用不确定性模型计算的碳排放结果比确定性模型计算的碳排放量少,更具代表性,有助于企业更早实现“双碳”目标。In order to effectively promote energy conservation and emission reduction measures,the guidelines for the preparation of greenhouse gas inventory have been provided important reference and policy support.However,the inconsistencies in inventory standards and deviations in recommended default values are the main sources of carbon emission calculation errors.From the perspective of computational methods,the model for the uncertainty of emission inventories has been established and studied.By comparing and using Monte Carlo Simulation method and Latin Hypercube Sampling,the simulating results have been carried out in view of uncertain factors.It is proposed to use the abatement technology to find representative typical data and improve the errors that were caused by calculating carbon emissions through using only the average value.The model was applied to the calculation of carbon emissions of Aksu Management Station in 2022,and the uncertainty of carbon emissions caused by different inventory calculations ranges from 1%to 4%.The carbon emission results calculated by uncertainty model are more representative and less than those calculated by deterministic model,which helps enterprises achieve the"dual carbon"goals earlier.

关 键 词：碳排放清单 碳排放计算 不确定性分析 蒙特卡罗模拟 拉丁超立方抽样 

分 类 号：X74[环境科学与工程—环境工程]