基于云模型的极地航行船舶驾驶员关键行为因素分析  

Critical behavioral factors of ship officers navigating in polar waters based on cloud model

作　　者：杨曌君 席永涛[1] 胡甚平[1] 付姗姗 YANG Zhaojun;XI Yongtao;HU Shenping;FU Shanshan(Merchant Marine College,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China;College of Transport and Communications,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学商船学院,上海201306 [2]上海海事大学交通运输学院,上海201306

出　　处：《极地研究》2024年第2期232-239,共8页Chinese Journal of Polar Research

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFC2801005)资助。

摘　　要：为系统性考虑人为因素对极地航行安全的影响,采用人为因素分析及分类系统和行为影响因子,结合船舶极地航行的实际情景特征,利用调研数据和云模型正向云发生器算法,构建了极地航行船员人为因素分析及分类模型。该模型包含49种驾驶员行为子因素,以识别极地航行船舶驾驶员人因失误的关键行为因子。结果显示:导致极地航行船员人因失误的关键行为因素来自不安全监督、不安全行为的前提条件和不安全行为层级的28个子因素。关键行为因素的识别有助于研究人员和管理者有针对性地采取有效措施,防止人为失误的发生以提高船舶极地航行安全水平。To systematically investigate the influence of human factors on navigation safety in polar waters,the Human Factor Analysis and Classification System-Polar Navigation Analysis(HFACS-PNA)model was proposed.The model combines the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System(HFACS)and Performance Influence Factor(PIF)with the actual characteristics of navigation scenarios in polar waters and uses survey data and the forward cloud generator algorithm based on a cloud model.Among 49 subfactors in the model,the critical factors that lead to ship officers making errors when navigating in polar waters were identified.The results show that the critical behavioral factors are based on 28 subfactors including unsafe supervision,preconditions for unsafe acts,and aspects of unsafe acts.The identified critical influence factors can help researchers and safety managers take adequate measures to improve safety and prevent the occurrence of human error during navigation in polar waters.

关 键 词：船舶航行 极地水域 人为因素 人为因素分析及分类系统 云模型 

分 类 号：U698[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]