环太湖五市城市人口吸引力与政策优化研究  

Study on Population Attraction and Policy Optimization of Five Cities around the Taihu Lake

作　　者：田野 Tian Ye(Party School of Xiuzhou District Committee of the Communist Party of China,Jiaxing 314000,China)

机构地区：[1]中共嘉兴市秀洲区委党校

出　　处：《上海城市管理》2024年第4期21-31,共11页Shanghai Urban Management

基　　金：2024年度浙江省党校系统社会科学联合规划课题(ND24169);环太湖发展研究中心2024年度课题(N76)部分成果。

摘　　要：城市人口吸引力的测度与演变分析是研究低生育背景下城市人口可持续发展的重要方法。根据外来人口竞争力和稳定性微观特质提出就业迁移假说,据此选取16个指标构建城市人口吸引力评价体系,运用主成分-灰色关联度综合分析法对2015—2022年环太湖五市吸引外来人口定居的能力进行测度,分析环太湖五市城市人口吸引力时序演变及构成规律。研究认为:2015—2022年环太湖五市城市人口吸引力总体保持上升趋势,收入水平和生活质量是构成环太湖五市城市人口吸引力的首要因素;嘉兴和湖州的城市人口吸引力整体强于苏州、无锡、常州,原因在于就业机会多,消费制约弱,对弱竞争力外来人口更具吸引力;环太湖五市城市人口吸引力各具特点,通过比较分析提出人口引进政策优化建议。The measurement and evolution analysis of urban population attractiveness is an important method for studying the sustainable development of urban population in the context of low fertility.According to the competitiveness and stability of migrant population,the employment migration hypothesis is put forward.Based on this,16 indicators are selected to build an evaluation system of urban population attractiveness.The ability of five cities around the Taihu Lake to attract migrant population to settle in 2015-2022 is measured by using the principal component gray correlation comprehensive analysis method,and the temporal evolution and composition of urban population attractiveness of five cities around the Taihu Lake are analyzed.The research shows that the population attractiveness of the five cities around the Taihu Lake has generally maintained an upward trend from 2015 to 2022,and the income level and quality of life are the primary factors constituting the population attractiveness of the five cities around the Taihu Lake;The overall attractiveness of urban populations in Jiaxing and Huzhou is stronger than that in Suzhou,Wuxi,and Changzhou,due to the abundance of employment opportunities and weak consumption constraints,making them more attractive to non local population with weak competitiveness;The population attraction of the five cities around the Taihu Lake has its own characteristics.Through comparative analysis,this paper puts forward suggestions for optimizing the population introduction policy.

关 键 词：人口吸引力 外来人口 环太湖 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学] D63[政治法律—政治学]