县域数字乡村发展对农村人口外流的影响——以广西为例  

The impact of digital rural development on rural population outflow—As an example of Guangxi Province

作　　者：韦敬楠 吴柳芬 WEI Jing-nan;WU Liu-fen(College of Economic and Management,Guangxi University of Science and Technology,Liuzhou 545006,Guangxi,China;School of Finance and Public Management,Guangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanning 530003,Guangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]广西科技大学经济与管理学院,广西柳州545006 [2]广西财经学院财政与公共管理学院,广西南宁530003

出　　处：《西北师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第4期88-96,共9页Journal of Northwest Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家社会科学青年基金资助项目(19CSH030);广西高校中青年教师基础能力提升项目(2022KY0219)。

摘　　要：基于2021年广西100个县区数据测算了人口外流率,运用空间自相关方法分析了县域农村人口外流类型的空间集聚与分异,并通过构建空间滞后模型和空间误差模型考查数字乡村发展对县域农村人口外流的空间溢出效应.结果显示:广西绝大部分县域人口处于净流出状态,只有雁山区和龙圩区处于人口净流入状态;人口外流类型在空间分布上存在一定集聚特征,其中,桂东北的部分县域呈现低-低集聚,桂东南的部分县域呈现高-高集聚特征;数字乡村发展能有效抑制县域农村人口外流,县域农村人口外流不仅受本县数字乡村发展的影响,还受到其他县域数字乡村空间溢出效应的影响;数字乡村对市辖区与县域农村人口外流的影响具有异质性.未来,广西应着力发展县域数字经济,进一步挖掘县域吸收农村劳动力的潜力,提高县域农村居民收入,抑制人口外流.It has been calculated the rate of outflow based on the population data of 100 counties in Guangxi Province in 2021,analyzed the spatial agglomeration and differentiation of the rural population outflow types in county areas by using spatial autocorrelation,and examined the spatial spillover effect of digital village on rural population outflow in county areas by constructing spatial lag model and spatial error model from the perspective of digitization in.The results show that most of the county population is in a state of net outflow in Guangxi Province,and the types of rural population outflow have certain clustering characteristics in spatial distribution.Some counties in the northeast of Guangxi Province show low-low agglomeration among them,and high-high agglomeration with some counties in the southeast.The development of digital rural can restrain the rural population outflow in counties effectively.The rural population outflow in county areas is not only affected by the digitization of the county,but also affected by the spatial spillover effect of the digitization of other counties.The study also finds that the impact of digitization on the rural population outflow in municipal districts and counties is heterogeneous.In the future,the digital economy in counties should be develop in Guangxi Province,excavate the potential of rural labor in counties even further,increase rural incomes in counties.

关 键 词：数字乡村 人口外流 空间分析 溢出效应 

分 类 号：F304.6[经济管理—产业经济]