基于Bucket改进多箱体模型的降雨径流预报  

Rainfall Runoff Forecast Based on Bucket_3 Improved Multi-box Model

作　　者：陈赛楠 CHEN Sainan(Shanghai Surveying and Mapping Institute,Shanghai 200063,China;Key Laboratory of Spatial-temporal Big Data Analysis and Application of Natural Resources in Megacities,Ministry of Natural Resources,Shanghai 200063,China)

机构地区：[1]上海市测绘院,上海200063 [2]自然资源部超大城市自然资源时空大数据分析应用重点实验室,上海200063

出　　处：《地理空间信息》2024年第7期59-63,共5页Geospatial Information

基　　金：上海市2021年度“科技创新行动计划”社会发展科技攻关资助项目(21DZ1204100)。

摘　　要：洪涝灾害造成的淹没区覆盖范围广、影响严重,灾前进行洪水预警评估能够在洪灾发生时及时疏散人员和保护财产。针对易受洪水侵袭的美国密西西比河圣路易斯流域,对比了不同复杂度、不同结构特点的Bucket、Simhyd、Smar、Hycy降雨径流模型,并分析了复杂度和结构对流域拟合结果的影响。通过对初始Bucket模型的不断改进,利用Bucket_3改进多箱体模型拟合流域水文,以KGE为模型拟合评价标准,利用2014—2016年的气象径流数据进行模型参数率定,校准精度为0.82;预估2016—2018年的径流数据,精度可达0.79,能很好地识别异常径流的出现,达到洪水灾前预警的目的。The inundation area caused by flood covers a wide area and affects the local ecosystem and the safety of people’s lives and properties.Flood warning assessment before a disaster can provide timely evacuation of people and property protection when a flood occurs.In this article we compared Bucket,Simhyd,Smar and Hycy rainfall runoff models with different complexity and structural characteristics for the Mississippi River St.Louis basin in the United States,which was prone to flooding,and analyzed the impacts of complexity and structure on the fitting results of basin.Through continuous improvement of the initial Bucket model,we used the Bucket_3 improved multi-box model to fit watershed hydrological,and took KGE as the model fitting evaluation criterion.The model parameters were rate calibrated by using meteorological runoff data from 2014 to 2016 with a calibration accuracy of 0.82.The runoff data from 2016 to 2018 was predicted with a prediction accuracy of 0.79.The result can well identify the appearance of abnormal runoff and achieve the purpose of pre-disaster warning of flood.

关 键 词：洪水灾前评估 降雨径流预报 Bucket模型 圣路易斯流域 

分 类 号：P237[天文地球—摄影测量与遥感]