基于MLR模型的土石坝面板钢筋应力安全监测指标拟定  

Development of stress safety monitoring index of reinforced bar on faceof earth-rock dam based on MLR model

作　　者：丛俊宇 李华 Cong Junyu;Li Hua(Guizhou Water Resources and Hydropower Survey,Design and Research Institute Co.,LTD.,Guiyang 550001,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州省水利水电勘测设计研究院有限公司,贵州贵阳550001

出　　处：《吉林水利》2024年第7期58-63,共6页Jilin Water Resources

基　　金：贵州省水利科技经费项目(KT202211)。

摘　　要：水库大坝在运行过程中需要通过安全监测资料对大坝运行状态进行实时分析评估,然而不同的水库大坝,安全监测指标的拟定不同。为解决水库大坝日常运行过程中安全监测指标拟定困难的问题,以夹岩水利枢纽工程为例,通过分析历史数据,选取监测数据连续、平稳的测点,并根据测点数据建立MLR模型确定测点监测数据置信区间,将置信区间上、下限作为监测阈值,拟定安全监测指标,与三维有限元分析结果进行对比。结果表明,基于MLR模型拟定的安全监测指标能够动态反映环境量对大坝运行状态的影响。研究可为保障大坝安全运行提供借鉴。In the operational process of reservoir dam,it is essential to analyze and evaluate real-time safety monitoring data in order to assess the dam’s operational status.However,the formulation of safety monitoring indicators varies for different reservoir dams.Taking Jiayan Water Conservancy Project as an example,historical data analysis was conducted to select test points with continuous and stable monitoring data.The Multiple Linear Regression(MLR)model was then established based on these test point data to determine the confidence interval of the monitoring data.The upper and lower limits of this confidence interval were used as monitoring thresholds,resulting in the development of safety monitoring indicators that were compared with three-dimensional finite element analysis results.The findings demonstrate that the MLR-based safety monitoring index can dynamically reflect how changes in environmental factors affect dam operation state,providing valuable guidance for ensuring dam safety.

关 键 词：水库大坝 钢筋应力 MLR模型:监测指标 

分 类 号：TV641[水利工程—水利水电工程] TV698.1