京津冀地区城市韧性时空演变及空间溢出效应研究  

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Spatial Spillover Effect of Urban Resilience in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

作　　者：邓昊键 刘凯[1,2] DENG Haojian;LIU Kai(School of Geography and Planning,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510006,China;Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai),Zhuhai 519000,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广州510006 [2]南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海),广东珠海519000

出　　处：《地域研究与开发》2024年第3期70-76,共7页Areal Research and Development

基　　金：广东省自然科学基金项目(2021A1515011462);广东省基础与应用基础研究基金项目(2021A1515110157);南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海)创新团队建设项目(311021004)。

摘　　要：快速城市化导致城市面临的不确定性因素和未知风险增加,评估城市韧性对于了解城市的健康和安全发挥重要作用。基于城市韧性评价模型、Capello模型和有向加权网络指标探析2012—2020年京津冀地区城市韧性的时空演变及其空间溢出效应,利用参数最优的地理探测器探析京津冀地区城市韧性的驱动因子。结果表明:(1)2019年底发生的新冠疫情造成2020年京津冀地区城市韧性增长速度下降了5.65%,但新冠疫情也提高了京津冀地区城市韧性的协调度。京津冀地区城市韧性存在显著的空间非均衡分布特征,衡水、保定、邢台和邯郸是城市韧性的“塌陷区”。(2)2012—2019年京津冀地区城市韧性空间溢出具有地域性和层级特征,形成以北京-天津为双核心的城市韧性空间溢出结构。(3)2019—2020年京津冀地区城市韧性总溢出强度下降,北京、天津和廊坊的城市韧性溢出为负向溢出。(4)城市GDP、常住人口数量、第一产业产值占GDP比例、高等学校数量、企业利润、客运总量、城市住户存款总额和人均存款余额是2012—2020年京津冀地区城市韧性的主要驱动因子。Rapid urbanization leads to an increase in uncertainty and unknown risks faced by cities,making the evaluation of urban resilience crucial in understanding the health and safety of cities.This study analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution and spatial spillover effects of urban resilience in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region from 2012 to 2020,utilizing the urban resilience assessment model,the Capello model,and directed weighted network indicators.Moreover,this study uses the optimal parameters-based geographic detector to explore the driving factors of urban resilience in the BTH region.The findings show that:(1)The COVID-19 pandemic that emerged at the end of 2019 caused the average annual growth rate of urban resilience in the BTH region to drop by 5.65%in 2020,but it enhanced the coordination of urban resilience within the region.A significant spatial imbalance exists in the distribution of urban resilience in the BTH region,with Hengshui,Baoding,Xingtai,and Handan identified as‘collapse zones’.(2)From 2012 to 2019,the spatial spillover of urban resilience in the BTH region displayed regional and hierarchical characteristics,forming a dual-core structure centered around Beijing and Tianjin.(3)From 2019 to 2020,urban resilience's overall spatial spillover intensity in the BTH region decreased,with the resilience spillover in Beijing,Tianjin,and Langfang being negative.(4)Urban GDP,permanent population size,the proportion of the primary industry in GDP,the number of higher education institutions,corporate profits,total passenger traffic,total urban household deposits,and per capita deposit balance were the crucial driving factors of urban resilience in the BTH region from 2012 to 2020.

关 键 词：城市韧性 空间溢出 地理探测器 京津冀 

分 类 号：F299.2[经济管理—国民经济] TU984.1[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]