气候变化下中国西南地区雷电活动随地形因子的动态变化  

Dynamic Variation of Lightning Activity in Southwest China with Topographic Factors under the Background of Climate Change

作　　者：侯波 杨艳蓉[1,2] 李盈萱 鲁坦[3] 李岩松 Hou Bo;Yang Yanrong;Li Yingxuan;Lu Tan;Li Yansong(College of Biology and Environment of Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China;Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China;Tianjin Meteorological Service Center,Tianjin 300074,China)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学生物与环境学院,南京210037 [2]南京林业大学江苏省南方现代林业协同创新中心,南京210037 [3]天津市气象服务中心,天津300074

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2024年第3期23-29,共7页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(31971671)。

摘　　要：我国西南地区多山林,生态环境复杂且脆弱,近年雷电灾害凸显。雷电活动与地形因子息息相关,且随气候变化而变化。基于2005-2017年全球闪电定位网WWLLN资料,结合地表高程数据DEM和历史气象信息,借助Mann-Kendall趋势检验、多元线性回归等方法,分析了西南地区雷电与地形因子的关系,探索气候变化下雷电活动随地形因子的变化趋势。结果表明:(1)2005-2017年西南地区雷电频次呈显著增加趋势。空间上总体呈东南高、西北低的特点。(2) 2005-2017年雷电活动主要集中在海拔为400 m左右、坡度为0°-5°的丘陵、低坡区,并随海拔、坡度升高而减少,但在海拔3500-5100 m、坡度为40°的高山、急坡段出现小峰值。偏东坡闪电频次大于偏西坡的。(3)随着气候变暖,西南地区雷电活动出现抬升、转移现象。受海拔400-500 m最低气温升高(0.11℃·a^(-1))、0°-5°低坡区相对湿度增加(0.09%·a^(-1))的影响,海拔400-500 m、0°-5°低坡区的闪电占比减少,减少率分别为0.20%·a^(-1)和0.38%·a^(-1),减少部分主要抬升到海拔为3500-5100 m、坡度为10°-25°的地形段。受偏东坡相对湿度增加(0.15%·a^(-1))、西坡年降水量增加(9.68 mm·a^(-1))的影响,东坡、东北坡闪电占比减少,减少率为0.08%·a^(-1),减少部分主要转移到西坡。The southwestern part of China,where lightning disasters have become prominent in recent years,is a mountainous area with complex and fragile ecological environment.Lightning activities are closely correlated to topographic factors and vary with changing climate.Based on the WWLLN data in 20052017 as well as the DEM data and historical meteorological data,this paper analyzes the relationship between lightning and topographic factor in Southwest China by means of Mann-Kendall trend test and multiple linear regressions,and also explores the variation trend of lightning activity with topographic factor under the situation of climate change.The results show that:(1)The lightning frequency in Southwest China presented a significantly increasing trend from 2005 to 2017.In terms of spatial distribution,the lightning frequency was high in the southeast and low in the northwest of the region.(2)During 20052017,lightning activities were mainly concentrated in the hilly and low-slope areas with elevation about 400 m above sea level(asl.)and slope of 0°to 5°,decreasing with the rise of elevation.However,a small peak value appeared in the high mountains and steep slope sections with elevation being 35005100 m asl.and slope of 40°.(3)With the warming climate,lightning activity in Southwest China was uplifted and shifted.Under the influence of the increased lowest temperature(growth rate:0.11℃·year^(-1))in the elevation 400500 m asl.and the increased relative humidity with growth rate of 0.09%·year^(-1) in the slope of 0°5°,the proportion of lightning decreased by 0.20%·year^(-1) and 0.38%·year^(-1) at elevation of 400500 m asl.and slope of 0°5°,respectively.The decreased part was mainly added to the elevation of 35005100 m asl.and slope of 10°25°,respectively.Affected by the increased relative humidity with growth rate 0.15%·year^(-1) on the slope by east and the increased annual precipitation(9.68 mm·year^(-1))on the western slope,the proportion of lightning on the eastern and northeastern slopes were reduced

关 键 词：雷电 地形因子 气候变化 西南地区 

分 类 号：P427.321[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P461.3