基于生长度日的牡丹物候期预测研究  

Study on Phenological Stage Prediction of Tree Peony Based on Growing Degree Days

作　　者：朱学玲 徐延红 张素霞 Zhu Xueling;Xu Yanhong;Zhang Suxia(Luoyang Meteorological Office of Henan Province,Luoyang 471000,China;Rudong County Agriculture and Forestry Science and Technology Information Station of Jiangsu Province,Rudong 226300,China;Zhengzhou Meteorological Office,Zhengzhou 450000,China)

机构地区：[1]洛阳市气象局,河南洛阳471000 [2]如东县农林科技信息站,江苏如东226300 [3]郑州市气象局,郑州450000

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2024年第3期55-61,共7页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406026);河南省气象局科技攻关项目(KM201828)。

摘　　要：利用2017-2019年在洛阳牡丹研究院开展的13个牡丹品种物候观测数据,结合逐日气象资料,分析了不同牡丹品种的物候特征,建立了基于生长度日的物候期模拟模型,再利用均方根误差(RMSE)和归一化均方根误差(NRMSE)对模型进行验证。结果表明:(1)牡丹鳞片开裂期、花蕾露出期的基点温度为3.6℃、翘蕾期、立蕾期、小风铃期、大风铃期、圆桃期、平桃期、破绽期的基点温度分别为5.6℃、6.8℃、7.8℃、8.6℃、8.8℃、12.9℃、13.4℃。(2)以此为依据,建立牡丹不同物候期发育的动态模拟模型。牡丹鳞片开裂期、花蕾露出期、翘蕾期、立蕾期、小风铃期、大风铃期、圆桃期、平桃期、破绽期的生长度日分别为13.8、14.3、12.8、12.8、13.5、14.2、59.5、10.3、10.1℃·d。(3)基于生长度日指标,结合气温资料模拟牡丹物候期,经检验,各物候期模拟值与实际值的均方根误差RMSE平均为2.6 d,归一化均方根误差NRMSE为3.3%,模型可适用于牡丹物候期的预测模拟。By using the experimental data of tree peony observed at the test field of Luoyang Peony Research Institute and the daily meteorological data in 20172019,the phenological characteristics of 13 different peony varieties are analyzed.Then,a model of the physiological development period based on the growing degree days is established,and finally the model simulations are verified by root mean square error(RMSE)and normalized root mean square error(NRMSE).The results show that:(1)The base-point temperature is 3.6℃in the scale cracking and in the bud revealing stages of tree peony,5.6℃in the twigging period,6.8℃in the bud standing period,7.8℃in the small bell-like flowering period,8.6℃in the large bell-like flowering period,8.8℃in the round peach period,12.9℃in the normal peach period and 13.4℃in flawing period.(2)Based on the above base-point temperatures,a dynamic simulation model is built for the growth of tree peony in different phenological periods.The growing degree days of tree peony in different phenological stages are 13.8℃·d in the scale cracking period,14.3℃·d in the bud revealing period,12.8℃·d in the bud twigging period,12.8℃·d in the bud standing period,13.5℃·d in the small bell-like flowering period,14.2℃·d in the large bell-like flowering period,59.5℃·d in the round peach period,10.3℃·d in the normal peach period and 10.1℃·d in the flawing period,respectively.(3)Based on the growing degree day indices and combined with the simulated phenological period of peony from air temperature data,the root mean square error(RMSE)of the simulated value and the actual value of each phenological period is verified to be about 2.6 d on average,and the normalized root mean square error(NRMSE)is 3.3%.These findings suggest that the model could be applied to the prediction and simulation of the phenological period of peony.

关 键 词：牡丹 物候期 模拟模型 生长度日 

分 类 号：S685.11[农业科学—观赏园艺] S165.2[农业科学—园艺学]