系统风险核心问题、形成机制及中国特色化解方案——实体经济与虚拟经济视角  

The Core Problem,Formation Mechanism and Solutions with Chinese Characteristics of Systematic Risk:From the Perspective of Real Economy and Fictitious Economy

作　　者：刘晓欣[1,2] 李军帅 刘莲 Liu Xiaoxin;Li Junshuai;Liu Lian(School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China;Fictitious Economy and Management Research Center,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China;China CITIC Financial Asset Management Co.,Ltd,Beijing 100033,China)

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,300071 [2]南开大学虚拟经济与管理研究中心,300071 [3]中国中信金融资产管理股份有限公司,100033

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2024年第5期31-48,共18页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“深度开放下外部金融冲击应急系统研究”(20ZDA101)的资助。

摘　　要：走中国特色金融发展之路,防范化解金融风险,是中国经济稳健高质量发展的保障。本文基于实体经济与虚拟经济视角探讨系统风险核心问题、形成机制及中国特色化解方案,以期完善金融风险防范和处置机制。通过研究发现:首先,系统风险的核心问题在于虚拟经济领域不良资产不断积累。借贷资本在实体经济与虚拟经济之间运行具有不同规律,虚拟经济领域自我循环引发的庞氏债务膨胀及其违约成为系统风险更加重要的风险源。其次,系统风险的形成机制源于个别风险系统化。本文从金融风险管理视角揭示了金融创新工具对冲或回避个别风险而导致风险在系统中寄存和持续积累的过程,其会加速债务违约泛化,引发金融危机。最后,中国金融风险处置实践彰显了中国特色社会主义制度优势,未来导向应在宏观上坚持金融服务实体经济,在微观上避免风险对冲的创新技术泛化,风险处置目标坚持风险化解与经济增长同步,风险处置方式强调政策性与市场化相结合。Taking the path of financial development with Chinese characteristics and preventing and resolving financial risks is the guarantee of China's sound and high-quality economic development.Based on the perspective of real economy and fictitious economy,this paper discusses the core problems,formation mechanism and solutions with Chinese characteristics of systematic risk,in order to improve the financial risk prevention and disposal mechanism.The study found that:First of all,the core problem of systematic risk lies in the accumulation of non-performing assets in the field of fictitious economy.There are different laws in the operation of loan capital between real economy and fictitious economy.Ponzi debt expansion and default caused by self-circulation in fictitious economy become more important risk source of systematic risk.Secondly,the formation mechanism of systematic risk stems from the systematization of individual risks.From the perspective of financial risk management,this paper reveals that financial innovation tools hedge or avoid individual risks,which leads to the process of risk deposit and continuous accumulation in the system,accelerating the generalization of debt default and triggering financial crisis.Finally,China's financial risk disposal practice demonstrates the advantages of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics.The future orientation should adhere to financial services for the real economy at the macro level,avoid the generalization of innovative technology of risk hedging at the micro level,adhere to the synchronization of risk resolution and economic growth at the risk disposal goal,and emphasize the combination of policy and market in risk disposal methods.

关 键 词：系统风险 不良资产 实体经济 虚拟经济 中国方案 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]