人在环装备的可靠性建模与预计方法研究  

Research on Reliability Modeling and Prediction Method of Human-equipment

作　　者：刘超然 李天辰 王陶 LIU Chaoran;LI Tianchen;WANG Tao(GRG Metrology&Test Group Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510656;No.92578 Troops of PLA,Beijing 100161)

机构地区：[1]广电计量检测集团股份有限公司,广州510656 [2]中国人民解放军92578部队,北京100161

出　　处：《舰船电子工程》2024年第5期176-180,共5页Ship Electronic Engineering

基　　金：云南省基础科学研究基金项目“基于知识图谱的设备故障智能诊断及预警方法研究”(编号:202201AU07012)资助。

摘　　要：为解决“人在环”装备可靠性工程实践难题,论文突破现有可靠性建模和预计方法的缺陷和局限性,提出在系统可靠性建模和预计过程中考虑人员特性对系统性能的影响,引入人因可靠性的概念,改进传统可靠性建模和预计技术方法,形成适用于人在环装备系统的新型可靠性建模与预计方法,并给出了具体的实施步骤。针对常见的典型可靠性模型,运用普通概率法,给出人在环装备系统的可靠性数学模型,其中采用统计方法和一种人的可靠性分析模型获取人因可靠性数据。实际算例分析表明,针对人在环装备系统论文提出的技术方法具有普适性和易操作性,相应的基本可靠性和任务可靠性建模与预计结果更真实有效。In order to solve the practical problems of the human-equipment in the reliability engineering,this paper breaks through the defects and limitations of the existing reliability modeling and prediction methods,proposes to consider the influence of personnel characteristics on system performance in the process of system reliability modeling and prediction,introduces the concept of human reliability,and improves the traditional reliability modeling and prediction techniques.A new reliability modeling and pre⁃diction method for the human-equipment system is developed,and the concrete implementation steps are given.The reliability mathematical model are established for the common typical reliability models by using the general probability method.A statistical method and a human reliability analysis model are used to obtain the human reliability data.The analysis of practical examples shows that the method here is universal and easy to operate,and the corresponding results of basic reliability and mission reliability modeling and prediction are more real and effective.

关 键 词：人在环装备 可靠性建模 可靠性预计 人因可靠性 普通概率法 

分 类 号：U662[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程] TB114[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]