2006—2020年中国居民丙肝发病趋势的年龄-时期-队列效应分析  

Analysis of Age-period-cohort Effect for Incidence Trend of Hepatitis C Incidence in Chinese Residents from 2006 to 2020

作　　者：姚媛媛 杨仙湖 刘辉 刘兴荣[1] YAO Yuanyuan;YANG Xianhu;LIU Hui;LIU Xingrong(School of Public Health,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou Gansu 730000,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学公共卫生学院,甘肃兰州730000 [2]兰州大学基础医学院,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《卫生经济研究》2024年第7期6-8,14,共4页

基　　金：兰州大学“一带一路”专项经费资助项目。

摘　　要：目的:分析2006—2020年中国居民丙肝发病趋势,为丙肝防治工作提供参考依据。方法:基于2006—2020年中国丙肝发病率数据,构建年龄-时期-队列模型,分析丙肝发病趋势及年龄、时期、出生队列对发病率的影响。结果:中国居民丙肝发病率由2006年的5.41/10万上升至2020年的13.82/10万,纵向年龄曲线呈“J”字形上升趋势,时期RR值随着时间先上升后下降,出生队列效应呈倒“W”变化趋势。结论:中国居民丙肝发病率总体呈上升趋势,受年龄和出生队列效应的影响较大,对此,应加强丙肝防治知识的宣传教育,积极落实丙肝防治措施,控制传播途径,有效推动和助力实现2030年消除丙肝公共卫生危害各项工作目标。Objective To analyze the trend of hepatitis C incidence in Chinese residents from 2006 to 2020,and to provide a reference basis for hepatitis C prevention and treatment.Methods Based on the data of hepatitis C incidence rate in China from 2006 to 2020,an age-period-cohort model was built to analyze the trend of hepatitis C incidence rate and the influence of age,period and birth cohort on the incidence rate.Results The incidence rate of hepatitis C among Chinese residents increased from 5.41/100000 in 2006 to 13.82/100000 in 2020.The longitudinal age curve of the incidence rate showed a J-shaped upward trend.The RR value of the period first increase and then decreased over time.The birth cohort effect of the risk of hepatitis C showed an inverted W trend.Conclusion The overall trend of hepatitis C incidence in China is on the rise,and the risk of hepatitis C incidence is strongly influenced by age and cohort effects.In this regard,it is necessary to strengthen the publicity and education of hepatitis C prevention and treatment knowledge,actively implement hepatitis C prevention and treatment measures,and control the transmission pathway,so as to effectively promote and help realize the goal of eliminating the public health hazards of hepatitis C in 2030.

关 键 词：丙型病毒性肝炎 年龄-时期-队列效应 发病率 传染病防治 

分 类 号：R19[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]