基于GWR的中国省域尺度铁路货运供需协调度时空演化规律  

Spatiotemporal evolution patterns of railway freight supply and demand coordination at provincial scale in China based on geographically weighted regression

作　　者：李冰 马瑞晨 黄爱玲[1] 蒋志寰 王佃依 LI Bing;MA Ruichen;HUANG Ailing;JIANG Zhihuan;WANG Dianyi(School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044

出　　处：《北京交通大学学报》2024年第3期15-28,共14页JOURNAL OF BEIJING JIAOTONG UNIVERSITY

基　　金：国家高端智库重点研究课题(T23GDZK00010);中国科协创新战略研究院项目(2022-hjs-09)。

摘　　要：为探究铁路货运供需耦合协调发展的影响因素及其时空演化规律,基于2010年、2015年和2020年31个省份铁路货运相关统计数据,构建了包含19项需求侧和17项供给侧影响因素的供需协调度指标库.在结合相关系数法和变异系数法对指标库中的影响因素进行筛选后,利用熵权法确定权重并计算省域耦合协调度.基于地理加权回归模型(Geographically Weighted Regression,GWR)构建铁路货运供需协调时空分析模型,以解释我国铁路货运供需耦合协调度的省级区域差异及其时空演化规律,并提出障碍度模型分析制约铁路货运供需协调发展的主要因素.研究结果表明:在样本考察期内铁路货运供需耦合协调度空间分布具有集聚性,影响因素对铁路货运供需耦合协调度的影响程度具有空间非稳态特征,且发生重心的空间转移和分化现象,其中东北、华北地区供需耦合度较高,西部地区供需耦合度低;铁路货物周转量和货运量为影响供需协调发展的关键障碍因素.研究结果可为优化我国铁路货运网络、促进货运协调发展提供理论依据.To investigate the factors influencing the coordinated development of railway freight supply and demand and its spatiotemporal evolution,this study constructs an index database of supply and demand coordination,encompassing 19 demand-side and 17 supply-side factors based on railway freight statistical data from 31 Chinese provinces in 2010,2015,and 2020.After screening the influencing factors using the correlation coefficient and coefficient of variation methods,the entropy weight method is applied to determine weights and calculate provincial coupling coordination degrees.Through the Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR)model,a spatiotemporal analysis model for railway freight supply and demand coordination is developed to explain the regional variations and evolution patterns in China’s provincial railway freight coordination.And an obstacle degree model is proposed to identify the primary constraints on the development of railway freight supply and demand coordination.Results show that during the sample study period,the agglomeration in the spatial distribution of railway freight supply and demand coordination,with influencing factors exhibiting spatial nonstationary characteristics.A spatial shift and differentiation of the gravity center are observed,with higher coupling coordination in the Northeast and North China regions and lower coupling coordination in Western China.Railway freight turnover and freight volume are the key obstacle factors affecting the supply and demand coordination development.These findings provide a theoretical foundation for optimizing the railway freight network and promoting coordinated freight development.

关 键 词：铁路货运 供需分析 耦合协调 GWR 时空演化 

分 类 号：U294.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]