战略惯性与陆权传统大国的地缘制权偏好  

Strategic Inertia and the Geopolitical Power-shaping Preferences of Land-based Traditional Powers

作　　者：秦立志 QIN Li-zhi

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学国际事务与公共管理学院,青岛266071 [2]中国海洋大学海洋发展研究院,青岛266071

出　　处：《东北亚论坛》2024年第4期17-39,127,共24页Northeast Asia Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(21BGJ068)。

摘　　要：“地缘政治复归”是对21世纪大国战略竞争叙事的重要标签,呼吁地缘政治重要性的倡议要远多于地缘政治研究的实际进展。虽然大国崛起的成败不能仅仅归功于海权或陆权,但如果没有地缘制权的掌控,一国崛起和发展的地缘空间将被大大压缩。相比海权传统大国而言,陆权传统大国发展海权更加强调惯性的作用,如果惯性不足,则可能招致海权发展的夭折;如果惯性过大,则可能陷入过度扩张。既有研究尚没有对战略惯性的地缘政治效应有足够关注,对“修昔底德陷阱”的分析缺乏时空因素的探究。大国的战略选择通常会受到系统、认知、行动等三重战略惯性的交互影响。本文依托新古典现实主义的大战略分析框架,将交叉性结构压力塑造的系统惯性作为自变量。由战略文化、战略动机、战略决心共同塑造的认知惯性作为中介变量。行动惯性作为因变量,其衡量指标包括战略节奏的快慢与报偿结构的动态变化。对地缘制权偏好的成因与效果评估,有助于增加崛起国因应地缘政治风险的战略容错率。The "geopolitical renaissance" is an important label for the narrative of strategic competition among the great powers in the twenty-first century,and there have been far more initiatives calling for the importance of geopolitics than actual progress in geopolitical research. Although the success or failure of a great power's rise cannot be attributed solely to sea power or land power,without geopolitical control,the geographic space for a country's rise and development will be greatly reduced. Compared with the traditional sea power,the development of sea power by the traditional land power emphasizes more on the role of inertia. If the inertia is insufficient,the development of sea power may be aborted. If the inertia is too large,it may fall into overexpansion. Existing studies have not paid much attention to the geopolitical effects of strategic inertia,and the analysis of the "Thucydides Trap" lacks attention to spatial and temporal factors. The strategic choices of great powers are usually influenced by the interaction of systemic,cognitive,and operational strategic inertia. Relying on the neoclassical realism framework of grand strategy analysis,systemic inertia shaped by crosscutting structural pressures is taken as the independent variable. Cognitive inertia,which is jointly shaped by strategic culture,strategic motivation,and strategic determination,serves as the mediating variable. Operational inertia serves as the dependent variable,and its measures include the speed of strategic tempo and the dynamics of reward structure. An assessment of the causes and effects of geopolitical power-shaping preferences can help increase the strategic margin of error of rising countries in response to geopolitical risks.

关 键 词：战略惯性 陆权 海权 新古典现实主义 战略偏好 帝国 陆海统筹 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]