中美网络权力博弈:权力比较、认知影响与模式选择  

The Sino-US Cyber Power Competition:Power Comparison,Perception Impact,and Model Choice

作　　者：苗争鸣 邢悦[2] MIAO Zheng-ming;XING Yue

机构地区：[1]中国人民公安大学国家安全学院,北京100038 [2]清华大学国际关系学系,北京100084

出　　处：《东北亚论坛》2024年第4期40-56,127,共18页Northeast Asia Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(22CGJ005)。

摘　　要：数字化时代,网络空间成为大国博弈必争要地,中美在网络空间的权力竞争尤其激烈。网络权力来源于传统权力,但也与传统权力存有差异性。现有关于中美网络权力竞争的研究主要有实力挑战论、网络霸权论与网络资源获取论,鲜有将美国作为网络权力主体,分析其对华网络权力认知变化与行为表达的关系。美国处在网络权力中心地位,是网络权力博弈的发起者,也是感知网络权力影响的主体;中国则属于后发国家,是需要发展网络实力的主体,也是影响美国网络权力的主体。本文基于中国“网络权力发展”与美国“感知网络影响”的互动框架,将中美网络权力博弈分为四种类型:一是强技术发展、强影响感知:多维度制衡,烈度高型;二是弱技术发展、强影响感知:单维度制衡,烈度高型;三是强技术发展、弱影响感知:多维度制衡,烈度低型;四是弱技术发展、弱影响感知:单维度制衡,烈度低型。本文分别对以上四种类型予以案例论证。以上中美两国网络权力的博弈模式将处于动态变化之中,并在一定条件下可发生转换。In the digital age,cyberspace has become a necessary area of great power competition. China and the United States have different levels of cyber power,and the competition for cyber power has become increasingly fierce. Cyber power comes from traditional power,but it's not the same as traditional power. The existing researches on cyber power competition between China and the United States mainly focus on the theory of power challenge,cyber hegemony,and cyber resource development. Little research regards the United States as the hegemonic cyber power,and to analyze the link between cognitive changes and behavioral expressions of the United States cyber power competition with China. The United States has occupied a dominant position and as the main body of cyber power competition,it is also the main body of perception from cyber power impact,while China is a latecomer country in cyberspace,and it is the main body of developing cyber capabilities. Cyber power competition between China and the United States is mainly based on the interaction between "China's ability to develop cyber power" and "the perception of US cyberspace impact". There are four competition models:one:strong technology development,strong impact:multi-dimensional balancing,high intensity;two:weak technology development,strong impact:single-dimensional balancing,high intensity;three:strong technology development,weak impact:multi-dimensional balancing,Low intensity;four:weak technology development,weak impact:single-dimensional balancing,low intensity. The relevant cases are given separately,and the four modes of cyber power competition between China and the United States are constantly changing and can be transformed under certain conditions.

关 键 词：中美关系 网络权力 博弈 认知影响 模式选择 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]