密云水库1960-2022年水位变化及驱动因素分析  

Analysis of Water Level Changes and Driving Factors in Miyun Reservoir from 1960 to 2022

作　　者：庄妍 樊敏 孙进 ZHUANG Yan;FAN Min;SUN Jin(Beijing Miyun Reservoir Management Office,Beijing 101512,China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市密云水库管理处,北京101512 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《中国水能及电气化》2024年第7期48-56,共9页China Water Power & Electrification

摘　　要：文章以水文站长期监测资料整编成果、遥测雨量站降水监测成果、流域历年降水蒸发数据及水库蓄水资料为基础,综合运用一元线性回归法、水量平衡法、相关系数分析法、相对评判法,分析密云水库1960—2022年水位变化特征及其影响因素。研究认为:密云水库水位年代际变化依次经历了五个涨落阶段,水位呈上升变化趋势;人类调控和自然来水相互作用导致的入库、出库水量变化,影响密云水库蓄水量上升或下降,是水库水位变化主要驱动因素。该成果对密云水库安全调度、水资源合理利用具有一定参考价值。Based on the long-term monitoring data compilation of hydrological stations,remote sensing rainfall monitoring results from telemetry rainfall stations,historical precipitation and evaporation data of the watershed,and reservoir storage data,this paper comprehensively utilizes the methods of linear regression,water balance,correlation coefficient analysis,and relative evaluation to analyze the characteristics of water level variation in the Miyun Reservoir from 1960 to 2022 and its influencing factors.The paper concludes that the water level of the Miyun Reservoir has undergone five stages of rise and fall over the decades,showing an overall upward trend.Changes in inflow and outflow volumes due to human regulation and natural water interaction affect the rise or fall of the reservoir storage,serving as the main driving factors for water level fluctuations in the reservoir.This finding holds certain reference value for the safe operation and rational utilization of water resources in the Miyun Reservoir.

关 键 词：密云水库 水位特征 驱动因素 降雨来水 水库调蓄 

分 类 号：TV697.11[水利工程—水利水电工程]