国家中心城市韧性的时空演进及影响因素分析:基于中国式现代化视角  

Analysis of the Spatial and Temporal Evolution and the Influencing Factors of the Resilience of National Central Cities Based on the Perspective of Chinese Path to Modernization

作　　者：阎东彬[1,2] 王蒙蒙 Yan Dongbin;Wang Mengmeng

机构地区：[1]河北金融学院,保定071051 [2]河北省高等学校人文社会科学重点研究培育基地“城市治理与创新发展研究中心”,保定071051 [3]对外经济贸易大学国际经济研究院,北京100029

出　　处：《区域经济评论》2024年第4期119-128,共10页Regional Economic Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“我国城市群功能空间系统重塑的机制及动力研究”(23BJY042);2023年河北省文化名家暨“四个一批”人才资助项目“京津冀高质量协同发展路径研究”。

摘　　要：党的二十大报告指出,要“加快转变超大特大城市发展方式,打造宜居、韧性、智慧城市”。借助2011—2021年9个国家级中心城市的面板数据,剖析国家中心城市的城市韧性时空演变特征,并运用动态空间杜宾模型探查其影响因素。结果显示:9大中心城市平均韧性呈持续增长态势,但韧性绝对值相对偏小;各中心城市相关影响因素的本地效应和空间溢出效应差异化明显,且显著的直接效应和间接效应说明本地区域和邻近区域相关因素对城市韧性发展均产生影响。因此,各中心城市应立足区位特征,从优化政府职能、深化金融体制改革、完善中心城市科技创新体系和发展高水平开放型经济等方面增强城市韧性,推动国家中心城市整体实力跃升。The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out,“Move faster to change the development models of super-large and mega cities,and build livable,resilient,and smart cities”.Based on the panel data of nine national central cities from 2011—2021,this paper empirically analyzes the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of urban resilience of national central cities,and uses the dynamic spatial Durbin model to explore its influencing factors.The results show that the average resilience of the nine central cities is showing a continuous growth trend,but the absolute value of resilience is relatively small;The local effects and spatial spillover effects of relevant influencing factors in various central cities show significant differences,and the significant direct and indirect effects indicate that local and neighboring factors have an impact on urban resilience development.Therefore,it is recommended that each central city should focus on its location characteristics,enhance urban resilience from optimizing government functions,deepening financial system reform,improving the scientific and technological innovation system of central cities,and developing a high-level open economy,in order to promote the overall strength of national central cities to leap.

关 键 词：国家中心城市 中国式现代化 城市韧性 动态空间杜宾模型 

分 类 号：F207[经济管理—国民经济]