中国与“一带一路”共建国家进口贸易福利效应研究  

Research on the Welfare Effects from Import Trade between China and the“Belt and Road”Co-Construction Countries

作　　者：陶宏展 吴超[2] Tao Hongzhan;Wu Chao

机构地区：[1]河南省社会科学院,郑州451464 [2]郑州大学,郑州450001

出　　处：《区域经济评论》2024年第4期150-158,共9页Regional Economic Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“双循环格局下构建高效智慧供应链体系助推经济高质量发展研究”(21BJY058);河南省社会科学院基本科研费一般项目“中国与‘一带一路’共建国家进口贸易福利效应研究”(24E080)。

摘　　要：“一带一路”倡议已步入高质量发展阶段,科学准确评估中国与“一带一路”共建国家进口贸易福利效应对深化双边贸易合作至关重要。利用2002—2021年中国与“一带一路”共建国家HS4位数进口产品数据,在大国经济假设下测算中国与“一带一路”共建国家进口贸易福利效应,并对福利效应在国家和产品层面进行分解,研究发现:2002—2021年,中国与“一带一路”共建国家进口贸易福利收益从16.29亿美元上升到94.77亿美元,特别是2013年以后,中国与共建国家效率损失下降明显;中国在不断优化进口贸易外部空间格局,并承担了大部分的效率损失,持续履行与“一带一路”共建国家互惠发展的承诺。中国应继续深入与“一带一路”共建国家贸易合作,积极主动从共建国家扩大进口,降低消费品和中间品关税水平,把握进口主动权,整合区域内优势要素,为经济高质量发展注入新活力。The“Belt and Road”initiative has entered a stage of high-quality development,and the measurement of the welfare effects of import trade scientifically and accurately between China and the“Belt and Road”co-construction countries is of great practical significance to deepening bilateral trade cooperation.This paper uses the HS4-digit product level import data of China and the“Belt and Road”co-construction countries from 2002—2021 to measure the welfare effects from import trade between China and the“Belt and Road”co-construction countries under the large-country assumption,then decomposes the welfare effects at the country and product levels.The results show that the welfare effects from import trade between China and the“Belt and Road”co-construction countries increased from 1.629 billion in 2002 to 9.477 billion in 2021,especially,the efficiency loss of China and the co-construction countries decreased significantly since 2013.China is constantly optimizing the external spatial pattern of import trade,and bears most of the efficiency loss,it is fulfilling its commitment to mutually beneficial development with the“Belt and Road”co-construction countries.China should continue to deepen trade cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road,actively expand imports from co-construction countries,reduce tariffs on consumer goods and intermediate goods,seize the import initiative,integrate regional advantages,and inject new vitality into high-quality economic development.

关 键 词：“一带一路”共建国家 大国经济假设 进口贸易 福利效应 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]