基于SCE-UA算法的山区河流洪水预报研究——以寿溪河为例  

Research on flood forecasting of mountainous rivers based on SCE-UA algorithm-Taking Shouxi River as an example

作　　者：余明睿 蔡亦婷 李雅丽 覃光华[1,2] 李红霞[1] 黎小东[1] YU Mingrui;CAI Yiting;LI Yali;QIN Guanghua;LI Hongxia;LI Xiaodong(College of Water Resource&Hydropower,Sichuan Universiy,Chengdu 610065;State Key Lab.of Hydraulics and Mountain River Eng,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065)

机构地区：[1]四川大学水利水电学院,成都610065 [2]四川大学山区河流保护与治理全国重点实验室,成都610065

出　　处：《中国防汛抗旱》2024年第7期10-17,共8页China Flood & Drought Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(51879172);省部级项目“四川省山洪灾害高风险区预警模型开发”(23H0325)。

摘　　要：在山区河流,强降雨易引发山洪灾害,给人民的生命、财产带来严重威胁,因此,及时准确的山区河流洪水预报预警非常重要。然而,由于山区河流洪水突发性强且影响山区河流洪水的原因复杂,山区小流域洪水预报精度始终有限。以四川省典型山区小流域--汶川县寿溪河流域为研究对象,采用三水源新安江模型与垂向混合产流模型,并引进SCE-UA算法进行参数优选,对该流域的洪水预报进行了深入研究。研究表明SCE-UA算法适用于山区河流洪水预报,显著提升两个模型的预报效果,使三水源新安江模型和垂向混合产流模型的合格率分别提高了20%和35%。综合分析各项指标,垂向混合产流模型的预报结果相比三水源新安江模型更好。研究成果可应用于寿溪河流域山洪灾害预警,同时也可为其他山区河流洪水预报提供参考。In mountainous rivers,flash floods triggered by intense rainfall pose significant threats to human lives and property.Consequently,timely and accurate flood forecasting is critically important.However,due to the sudden occurrence of river floods in mountainous areas and the complex causes affecting river floods in mountainous areas,the accuracy of flood forecasts in these areas remains limited.This study focuses on the Shouxi River Basin in Wenchuan County,a typical mountainous small watershed in Sichuan Province.It employs the three-water-sources Xin'anjiang model and the vertical mixed runoff model,incorporating the SCE-UA algorithm for parameter optimization,to conduct flood forecasting model research.The results show that the SCE-UA algorithm is suitable for river flood prediction in mountainous areas,which significantly improves the prediction effect of the two models,and increases the qualification rate of the three-source Xin'an River model and the vertical mixed flow production model by 20%and 35%respectively.Comprehensive analysis of various indicators shows that the forecasting results of the vertical mixed runoff model are better than Xin'anjiang model.The findings of this study can be applied to flash flood disaster warnings in the Shouxi River Basin and provide a reference for flood forecasting in other mountainous rivers.

关 键 词：洪水预报 新安江模型 垂向混合产流模型 SCE-UA 优化算法 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]