基于时空双维度的公路交通基础设施与经济发展关系  

Relationship between highway traffic infrastructure and economic development based on two dimensions of time and space

作　　者：郭琳[1] 刘浩志 周育名 莫振涛 GUO Lin;LIU Hao-zhi;ZHOU Yu-ming;MO Zhen-tao(Transport Planning and Research Institute Ministry of Transport,Beijing 100028,China;School of Transportation Engineering,Changsha University of Science and Technology,Changsha 410014,Hunan,China)

机构地区：[1]交通运输部规划研究院,北京100028 [2]长沙理工大学交通运输工程学院,湖南长沙410014

出　　处：《长安大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第4期119-129,共11页Journal of Chang’an University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52108396);长沙理工大学青年成长计划项目(2019qjcz009)。

摘　　要：为揭示省际视角下公路交通基础设施投入与区域国民生产总值(GDP)增长之间的关系,以湖南省14个市州2004~2022年的市级面板数据为例,构建了协整模型和空间计量模型,分析湖南省区域公路交通基础设施投入与经济发展的协整关系,以及基于多种空间权重下的空间溢出效应,分析湖南省经济协调发展的影响因素。研究结果表明:在对面板数据的协整分析中发现,GDP与公路交通基础设施投入之间具有长期均衡稳定的关系,等级公路里程和公路交通基础设施投资对本区域的经济增长没有正向的促进作用;若忽略空间权重矩阵的作用,会放大交通基础设施投入对区域经济增长的贡献;全省区域内生产总值存在显著的空间自相关性,且在经济距离权重下的空间自相关性最为突出,但省内资源的过度集中造成了城市空间自相关性减弱的现象;在邻近空间矩阵Wij_cont和经济距离矩阵Eij_eco下,公路交通基础设施投入对经济增长的影响效应显著为负,这可能与省域内交通水平与经济发展的不均衡有关;在2种空间权重矩阵下,资本存量和劳动力水平均对经济发展有正向影响,且影响系数比重较大。研究结果可为中国中西部相似交通特点的地区提供参考,为合理确定区域公路交通基础设施的规划提供一定的依据。To reveal the relationship between highway traffic infrastructure investment and regional GDP growth from an inter-provincial perspective,based on the municipal panel data of 14cities and prefectures in Hunan Province from 2004to 2022,cointegration model and spatial econometric model were constructed,to analyze the cointegration relationship between regional highway traffic infrastructure investment and regional economic development,and the spatial spillover effect under various spatial weights in Hunan Province.Based on these two models,the influencing factors of coordinated economic development in Hunan Province was explored.The results show that based on the cointegration analysis of panel data,there is a long-term equilibrium and stable relationship between GDP and highway traffic infrastructure investment,and grade highway mileage and highway traffic infrastructure investment has no positive effect on the economic growth of the region.If the role of the spatial weight matrix is ignored,the contribution of traffic infrastructure investment to regional economic growth will be amplified.There is a significant spatial correlation in the GDP of the whole province,and the spatial correlation under the economic distance weight is the most prominent,but the excessive concentration of resources in the province has caused the phenomenon of weakening the spatial correlation of the city.Under the influence of the two weights of economic distance,spatial correlation is the most prominent.Under the two matrices of Wij_contand Eij_eco,the overall effect of highway traffic infrastructure investment on economic growth is significantly positive,and the spatial spillover effect of grade highway mileage on economic growth is more significant than the new fixed assets of highway traffic.Under the two spatial weight matrices,the capital stock and labor level have a positive impact on economic development,and the proportion of the impact coefficient is large.The results of this study can provide a reference for the similar traffic

关 键 词：交通工程 公路交通基础设施 区域经济 协整模型 空间计量模型 空间溢出效应 

分 类 号：U49[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]