基于滚动采样马尔可夫链模型的光伏时序功率模拟研究  

Study on time series power simulation of photovoltaic output based on rolling sampling Markov chain model

作　　者：刘迪 吴林林 巩宇 赵一名 黄贤淼 蔡建明 夏明超[2] LIU Di;WU Linlin;GONG Yu;ZHAO Yiming;HUANG Xianmiao;CAI Jianming;XIA Mingchao(Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Jibei Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100045,China;School of Electrical Engineering,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]国网冀北电力有限公司电力科学研究院,北京100045 [2]北京交通大学电气工程学院,北京100044

出　　处：《电力科学与技术学报》2024年第3期207-216,共10页Journal of Electric Power Science And Technology

基　　金：国网冀北电力有限公司科技项目(52018K20007K)。

摘　　要：光伏出力的波动性和随机性会给电力系统调度运行的安全性和可靠性带来影响。为了实现对光伏出力长时间尺度的准确模拟,本文提出一种基于马尔可夫链的光伏场站时序功率模拟模型。首先,建立光伏出力模型,并对出力的不确定性和规律性特征进行研究分析;然后,在一阶马尔可夫链模型的基础上考虑相邻日之间的联系,根据季节与天气因素以10 d为一个采样区间对历史数据进行滚动采样,建立多状态转移概率矩阵,构建全年时序出力模拟模型;最后,以某光伏电站全年出力数据与历史气象监测数据为基础,通过实例模拟了全年的出力情况,并与传统方法进行了对比分析。算例结果验证了所提方法的有效性,表明该方法较好地模拟了受季节与天气影响下的光伏出力情况,与历史实际情况更为吻合。The volatility and randomness of photovoltaic(PV)output will affect the security and reliability of power system dispatching operation.In order to accurately simulate the PV output over a long time scale,this paper proposes a time-series power simulation model of PV output based on Markov chain.Firstly,a photovoltaic output model is established,and the uncertainty and regularity characteristics of output are analyzed.Then,considering the output relationship between adjacent days of the year on the basis of the first-order Markov chain model,the historical data is sampled in a rolling way with 10 days as a sampling interval based on the season and weather factors,and a multi-state transition probability matrix is established,and then the annual time series output model is constructed;Finally,based on the output data and the annual historical meteorological monitoring data of a PV plant,the simulation of the annual output is conducted and the results are compared with the traditional methods.The example results verify the effectiveness of the proposed method,which shows that the method can simulate the PV output under the influence of season and weather,and is consistent with the historical actual situation.

关 键 词：光伏发电 马尔可夫链 状态转移概率矩阵 时序功率模拟 

分 类 号：TM743[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]