打好政策组合拳:减税影响小微企业退出吗  

Policy Mix Matters:Does Tax Reduction Affect the Exit of Micro and Small Enterprises?

作　　者：林超 尹恒[2] LIN Chao;YIN Heng(Renmin University of China,100872)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学财政金融学院,100872 [2]中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院,100872

出　　处：《财贸经济》2024年第7期23-39,共17页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“中国劳动收入份额演变的新趋势及驱动力研究:基于企业行为的微观视角”(72173131);国家自然科学基金面上项目“异质企业环境下税收的超额负担研究”(71873132);中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目“营商环境对小微企业退出的影响研究”(23XNH007)。

摘　　要：减税本应是支持小微企业生存与发展的重要政策工具,本文却发现减税反而引起小微企业退出。基于2009-2016年全国税收调查与全国工商信息的匹配数据,本文以小微企业核定征收所得税优惠政策改革为准自然实验,利用双重差分法研究减税对小微企业退出的影响,发现减税会显著提高小微企业退出的概率。这种效应在财政压力较大地区更为明显。机制分析表明,减税政策产生减税效应的同时伴随着征管强化效应,最终反而带来小微企业退出概率提高。异质性分析显示,这种效应在无研发、服务业、高劳动密集度的企业中更为明显。本文研究结论表明了政策组合的重要性:减税本身并不足以实现政策目标,只有相应政策配套起来,进一步规范税收征管,才能更好地发挥减税政策的积极作用。Micro and Small Enterprises(MSEs)are crucial pillars of economic resilience,and their survival is a matter of significant concern.How to devise policies to ensure their survival is an important issue that has garnered widespread global attention.A key policy is tax reduction.The Chinese government has introduced many tax reduction policies to support MsEs,but their exact impact on their survival remains unclear.Due to the lack of data and reliable identification frameworks,few studies have provided definitive answers to this question.This paper addresses this issue by utilizing data matched from the national tax survey and national industrial and commercial information from 2009 to 2016,focusing on policy reforms related to the assessment-based tax collection of MSEs.The dataset provides detailed financial information on MSEs,particularly tax-related information,allowing for a clear understanding of tax reductions received by MSEs and precise identification of their market entry and exit points.Most tax incentive policies are targeted at enterprises subject to audit-based tax collection.However,since 2014,assessment-based enterprises have also been allowed to enjoy these preferential income tax policies,creating a natural experiment for identifying the impact of tax reductions on MSEs.This paper employs a difference-in-differences method and finds that tax reduction policies significantly increase the probability of exiting MSEs.This effect is more pronounced in regions under greater fiscal pressure.Mechanism analysis indicates that while these policies generate a tax reduction effect,they also strengthen the tax administration.These two effects have opposing impacts on MSEs,ultimately leading to their market exit due to their combined influence.These results highlight the importance of policy mix.In other words,tax reductions need to be complemented by appropriate policy measures to better regulate tax administration,thereby better leveraging the positive effects of tax reduction policies.This paper's contributi

关 键 词：减税 小微企业退出 税收征管 政策组合 

分 类 号：F812.4[经济管理—财政学]