市场替代家庭生产:基于大数据看生活服务业发展  

Market Production Substituting for Home Production:A Study on Consumer Services Based on Big Data

作　　者：钟粤俊 陆铭[2,3] 奚锡灿 王凤岩 ZHONG Yuejun;LU Ming;XI Xican;WANG Fengyan(East China Normal University,200062;Shanghai Jiao Tong University,200030;Fudan University,200433;Alibaba Research Institute,200062)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学经济与管理学院,200062 [2]上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院 [3]中国发展研究院,200030 [4]复旦大学经济学院,200433 [5]阿里研究院新消费&新产业研究中心,200062

出　　处：《财贸经济》2024年第7期74-93,共20页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“大数据视野下的城市空间结构与有效治理”(72073094);国家自然科学基金项目“超大规模市场的动态均衡理论与量化方法研究:结构转型与改革路径”(72342035);上海交通大学现代金融研究基金(202207)。

摘　　要：市场对于家庭生产的替代既是理解经济结构转型的重要视角,也是城市规模经济效应的重要来源。本文首先构建包含城市规模、外部冲击摩擦、市场生产和家庭生产的模型,考察存在外生冲击时,家庭如何在市场服务和家庭生产之间进行选择。然后,本文以2020年新冠疫情作为外生冲击,基于高频的消费大数据和百度检索数据,用双重和三重差分回归模型检验“市场服务对于家庭生产的替代”。研究发现,疫情冲击后,用于家庭生产的厨房小电器购买量和关注度相比其他电器上升显著更快,而该效应对大城市和受疫情冲击大的城市影响显著更大。机制分析表明,疫情冲击了服务业供给,家庭劳务时间和食品消费数量显著增加。这说明,常态下,城市(尤其是大城市)的市场服务替代了家庭生产,服务消费产生了提高福利和劳动生产率的作用。Market production substituting for home production is an important perspective in contemporary macroeconomics for studying economic growth,fluctuations,and structural transformation.The degree of substitution varies,which is one of the main reasons for the differences in working hours and labor productivity across regions.Some studies have shown that household production time is mostly used for producing services.Therefore,the development of the service sector promotes the market-oriented substitution of market production for home production.At the same time,urban economics emphasizes the match between specialized production and consumption.The development of market services as a substitute for home production precisely reflects the deepening division of labor in urban economics.However,there is a lack of empirical evidence on the market-home substitution effect and the differences in substitution effects among cities.More importantly,if we want to start from the mechanism of market production's substitution for home production and use structural models to estimate the effects of urban structural transformation,we need corresponding parsimonious estimation to reveal the relevant parameters of the substitution.As per capita GDP increases,households will choose services available in the market over household production.This will lead to an increase in individual working hours and employment in the service sector,thereby accelerating structural transformation.International experience has shown that after an economy reaches the high-income level,consumption contributes increasingly to economic growth.However,compared to other countries in the same development stage,Chinese economy has long been characterized by relative consumption deficiency.Research suggests that this deficiency is related to a series of institutional factors in the production factor market.However,few studies have paid attention to the increasing importance of service consumption for consumption growth as China's economy enters a new development s

关 键 词：城市 消费 家庭生产 替代效应 服务业 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学] F062.9F063.2