服务贸易协定能否降低服务贸易成本——兼论正面清单和负面清单的有效性  

Does Service Trade Agreements Restrain Service Trade Cost?On the Effectiveness of Positive and Negative Lists

作　　者：陈启斐[1] 郝思婕 CHEN Qifei;HAO Sijie(Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,210023)

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学国际经贸学院,210023

出　　处：《财贸经济》2024年第7期164-180,共17页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“服务业双重开放、供应链网络重构与制造业高质量发展:理论机制与实证检验”(72173062);教育部人文社会科学一般项目“服务业双向开放重塑我国供应链网络的机理、路径与对策研究”(21YJC790014);国家社会科学基金项目“新发展格局下数字平台赋能传统产业集群价值链升级研究”(23BJL078)。

摘　　要：本文测度了1995-2021年全球54个国家(地区)与215个贸易伙伴国(地区)的双边服务贸易成本,在此基础上利用全球622项自由贸易协定,识别服务贸易协定对服务贸易成本的影响,得到以下结论。第一,服务贸易协定能够显著地降低服务贸易成本。缔结服务贸易协定后,双边服务贸易成本下降1.35%。第二,负面清单是服务贸易协定削减双边服务贸易成本的重要渠道。当服务贸易协定采用负面清单模式时,双边服务贸易成本下降3.06%,正面清单的影响不显著。第三,服务贸易的增长分解发现,双边服务贸易成本下降是促进服务贸易增长的重要因素。1995-2021年,服务贸易增长的64.91%源于服务贸易成本下降。此外,服务市场规模扩张也是服务贸易增长的重要原因。样本期内,服务贸易增长的51.11%源于市场规模扩张。最后,本文还采用包括工具变量在内的多种方法进行稳健性检验,有力地保证实证结果的可靠性。本文的研究有助于深入厘清服务贸易协定影响服务贸易流量的内在机理,为构建多边服务贸易协定、发展服务贸易提供有益的建议。Due to the huge differences in trade liberalization across countries,WTO is yet to form a unified multilateral service trade opening-up system.As the coordination mechanism under the framework of multilateral negotiations is increasingly weakened,many countries have signed Free Trade Agreements(FTA).As a result,regional trade agreements have gradually become an important carrier of globalization(Baier and Bergstrand,2004).Since the 1990s,global trade agreements have increased significantly,and trade agreements containing provisions on trade in services have surged in numbers(Lin Xi and Bao Xiaohua,2018).Existing studies on service trade agreements and service trade relations have reached a relatively consistent conclusion:service trade agreements can significantly promote service trade flows(Lin Xi and Lin Qi,2021;Tie Ying et al.,2021;Zhou Nianli,2012).However,the internal mechanism for service trade agreements to enhance service trade flow is still in the"black box."Can service trade agreements effectively reduce the cost of trade in services?The answer to this question can provide a solid theoretical basis for the trade effect of service trade agreements,which is of greatly theoretical significance and practical value.As the service sector includes many key areas of the industrial system,such as finance,insurance,research and development,and information technology,policy makers are cautious about its opening-up.As domestic market rules are improved,how to coordinate the relationship between internal and external opening-up of the service sector has always been an issue of great political concern.Take the financial industry as an example.Although countries hope to reduce the external cost of the financial service industry,none of them wants to cut the domestic financial cost for they want to keep the monopoly rent of the financial industry(Rodrik,2018).Thus,there are two different opening-up modes under the service trade agreement:the positive list and the negative list.Their key difference is that the former sp

关 键 词：服务贸易协定 服务贸易成本 正面清单 负面清单 

分 类 号：F74[经济管理—国际贸易]