元谋干热河谷1988—2022年参考作物蒸散量的演变趋势及其影响因素  

Evolutionary Trends and Influencing Factors of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration in the Yuanmou Dry-Hot Valley from 1988 to 2022

作　　者：罗志锋 齐丹卉[1] 欧朝蓉[1] 何真敏 彭凌霄 孙永玉[2] 李向飞 张春华 Luo Zhifeng;Qi Danhui;Ou Chaorong;He Zhenmin;Peng Lingxiao;Sun Yongyu;Li Xiangfei;Zhang Chunhua(Southwest Forestry University,Kunming 650000,P.R.China;State Key Laboratory of Efficient Production of Forest Resources(Institute of Highland Forest Science,Chinese Academy of Forestry);Yuanmou Desert Ecosystem Research Station(National Long-Term Scientific Research Base of Comprehensive Control in Yuanmou Dry-hot Valley))

机构地区：[1]西南林业大学,昆明650000 [2]林木资源高效生产全国重点实验室(中国林业科学研究院高原林业研究所) [3]云南元谋干热河谷生态系统国家定位观测站(云南元谋干热河谷荒漠综合治理国家长期科研基地)

出　　处：《东北林业大学学报》2024年第9期91-98,114,共9页Journal of Northeast Forestry University

基　　金：国家林草局林业生态站监测运行项目(2024132133);云南省自然生态网络项目(2024-YN-07);中国林业科学研究院科研设施运行维护项目(KS2024169160012)。

摘　　要：为研究元谋干热河谷地区参考作物蒸散量的变化及其影响因素,以元谋干热河谷1988—2022年气象站点逐日气象数据为基础,采用敏感度分析、贡献率分析、主成分分析、通径分析、分层聚类分析、灰色关联度等定量和定性的方法分析元谋干热河谷参考作物蒸散量变化规律及其影响因素。结果表明:近35 a,元谋干热河谷年度、旱、雨季参考作物蒸散量均呈显著上升趋势(Z>1.96),每10 a增幅分别为18.663、3.903、14.761 mm,增幅表现为雨季大于旱季,2008年既是年度参考作物蒸散量转折点也是突变点,旱、雨季的参考作物蒸散量无突变点;主成分分析结果显示,根据综合得分系数和权重对8个气象因子进行排序,从大到小依次为,日最高气温、日平均气温、日相对湿度、日照时间、日最低气温、日平均风速、日平均降水、实际水汽压;聚类分析结果将8个气象要素划分为6类,灰色关联度值计算结果与主成分分析结果一致,灰色关联度和主成分分析互相验证;元谋干热河谷的年度参考作物蒸散量主要受到日最高气温的影响,而在不同季节,参考作物蒸散量的主导因素不同。To study the changes in reference crop evapotranspiration and its influencing factors in the Yuanmou Dry-hot Valley area,daily meteorological data from 1988 to 2022 were used.Quantitative and qualitative methods such as sensitivity analysis,contribution rate analysis,principal component analysis,path analysis,hierarchical clustering analysis,and grey relational analysis were employed to analyze the trends and influencing factors of reference crop evapotranspiration in the Yuanmou Dry-hot Valley.The results showed that over the past 35 years,annual,dry season,and rainy season reference crop evapotranspiration in the Yuanmou dry-hot valley exhibited a significant upward trend(Z>1.96),with increases of 18.663 mm,3.903 mm,and 14.761 mm per decade,respectively.The increase was more pronounced in the rainy season than in the dry season.The year 2008 marked a turning point and a sudden change point for annual reference crop evapotranspiration,while no sudden change points were observed for reference crop evapotranspirationin the dry and rainy seasons.Principal component analysis ranked the eight meteorological factors based on their comprehensive score coefficients and weights in descending order:daily maximum temperature,daily average temperature,daily relative humidity,sunshine duration,daily minimum temperature,daily average wind speed,daily average precipitation,and actual water vapor pressure.Cluster analysis grouped the eight meteorological factors into six categories,and the results of grey relational analysis were consistent with those of principal component analysis,mutually verifying each other.The annual reference crop evapotranspiration in the Yuanmou Dry-hot Valley was mainly influenced by daily maximum temperature,while the dominant factors affecting reference crop evapotranspiration varied across different seasons.

关 键 词：参考作物蒸散量 主成分分析 敏感性分析 元谋干热河谷 

分 类 号：S161.4[农业科学—农业气象学]