源于自然灾害的政府或有债务风险管理:国际经验与借鉴  

Government Contingent Liability Risk Management from Natural Disasters:International Experiences and References

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作  者:马恩涛 任海平 MA Entao;REN Haiping(School of Public Finance&Taxation,250220)

机构地区:[1]山东财经大学财政税务学院,山东省济南市250220

出  处:《财经智库》2024年第1期87-108,135,共23页Financial Minds

摘  要:自然灾害政府或有债务风险管理是降低政府财政支出波动风险、增强政府对自然灾害的财政适应能力和财政韧性的重要举措,对政府全面提高防范化解重大安全风险能力具有重要意义。当前,我国对源于自然灾害的政府或有债务风险管理尚处于初步阶段,存在自然灾害或有债务风险管理的制度基础薄弱、对冲和防控机制不足、相关信息披露不充分、评估体系缺乏等问题,应当在借鉴国外有益经验的基础上建立我国自然灾害政府或有债务风险管理框架。本文系统梳理了澳大利亚、日本、加拿大和墨西哥等国在风险识别、风险量化、风险预测和信息披露以及风险减缓方面的自然灾害政府或有债务风险管理的先进做法和经验,并在此基础上结合中国实际提出政策建议:健全自然灾害或有债务风险识别的制度体系、创新自然灾害或有债务量化评估配套机制、推进自然灾害或有债务风险预测和信息披露以及建立防范化解自然灾害或有债务风险长效机制。The management of government contingent liability risks arising from natural disasters is an important measure for reducing the volatility risk of government fiscal expenditure and enhancing the government's financial adaptability and resilience to natural disasters,and is of great significance to comprehensively improving the ability and level of preventing and defusing major security risks.At present,China's management of government contingent liability risks arising from natural disasters is still in the preliminary stage,and there are problems such as weak institutional foundation for the management of contingent debt risks arising from natural disasters,insufficient hedging and prevention and control mechanisms,inadequate disclosure of relevant information,and lack of evaluation systems.We should establish a management framework of government contingent liability risks arising from natural disasters on the basis of learning useful experiences from other countries.This paper systematically reviews the advanced practices of and experiences in management framework of government contingent liability risks arising from natural disasters of Australia,Japan,Canada,Mexico and other countries in risk identification,risk quantification,risk prediction,information disclosure and risk mitigation,and put forward the following policy suggestions based on the above aspects and China's conditions:Establish a sound system for identifying contingent liability risks arising from natural disasters,innovate supporting mechanisms for quantitative assessment of contingent liability risks arising from natural disasters,promote forecasting and information disclosure of contingent liability risks arising from natural disasters,and establish a long-term mechanism for preventing and defusing contingent liability risks arising from natural disasters.

关 键 词:自然灾害 政府或有债务 应急财政管理 政府债务管理 

分 类 号:E62[军事—军事理论]

 

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