印度莫迪政府印度洋战略调整的双重逻辑与战略限度  

The Dual Logic and Strategic Limitation on the Modi Government's Adjustment of Indian Ocean Strategy

作　　者：朱翠萍 胡文远 Zhu Cuiping;Hu Wenyuan

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学印度洋地区研究中心

出　　处：《南亚研究》2024年第2期52-78,154,155,共29页South Asian Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“印度在‘印太战略’中的作用、影响与中国的对策研究”(项目批准号:22BGJ069)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：近年来,随着世界经济格局演变与美国“印太战略”的持续推进,大国在印度洋的战略竞争呈加剧态势,印度追求印度洋影响力的手段也逐渐从“自助”转向“他助”,倾向于选择与拥有印度洋控制权的美国合作以制衡在印度洋仅具有有限战略存在的中国.印度调整印度洋战略不仅受到客观的物质性要素的影响,更与观念性要素密切相关.一方面,观念性要素包括身份认知、威胁认知、海权关切等形塑着一国的行为选择偏好,也对体系压力起着强化或抑制作用;另一方面,包括地理、历史、实力在内的客观性要素也是一国战略选择的考量因素,而相对实力的变化也对国家的战略选择偏好起着调节作用.同时,国际体系作为一个干预变量,无论是释放机遇还是施加压力,都对行为体对外战略选择与实践发挥着不可忽视的影响.目前来看,莫迪政府通过调整印度洋战略以实现弱化中国在印度洋影响力的战略目标存在很大的局限性,但印度战略转变对中印关系造成负面影响,强化了南亚小国在大国之间“左右逢源”获取经济利益的倾向性,为中国深化与印度洋沿岸国家的经济合作增添了变数.Along with the evolution of global economic landscape and continuous advancement of the U.S.Indo-Pacific Strategy,strategic competition among major powers in the Indian Ocean region has intensified.For its part,India has gradually turned away from a strategy of selfreliance to pursuing influence in the Indian Ocean region by seeking external assistance.In this regard,India prefers to work with the United States which has hegemony in the Indian Ocean,to counterbalance China which has only a limited presence in the region.India's adjustment of its Indian Ocean strategy is influenced both by material factors,but more importantly by conceptual factors.On one hand,conceptive factors such as selfidentity,threat perception and concerns about maritime power always shape a country's behavioral preferences,the change of relative power also plays a moderating role in a country's strategic choice.On the other hand,as an intervention variable,the influence of the international system on strategic choice cannot be ignored.Recently,there are great limitations to the Modi government's strategic goal of weakening China's influence in the Indian Ocean by adjusting its Indian Ocean strategy.What's more,India's strategic shift has had a negative impact on both China-India relations as well as cooperative ties between China and South Asian countries.To some extent,it has even added some uncertainties to China's deepening economic cooperation with countries along the Indian Ocean.

关 键 词：莫迪政府 印度洋战略 “印太战略” 中印关系 身份政治 

分 类 号：D835.1[政治法律—政治学]