制度制衡视角下印度小多边外交的成效与局限  

Effectiveness and Limitations of India's Minilateral Diplomacy:An Institutional Balancing Perspective

作　　者：胡娟[1] Hu Juan

机构地区：[1]云南省社会科学院南亚研究所

出　　处：《南亚研究》2024年第2期104-122,156,157,共21页South Asian Studies

基　　金：云南省哲学社会科学规划项目“印度多边外交战略及其对中国的影响研究”(课题编号:YB2023057)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：以争夺规则制定权为核心的国际制度竞争正在成为印度参与大国竞争的重要途径,小多边外交是印度参与制度制衡的重要工具.冷战结束后初期,巴基斯坦曾短暂成为其制衡对象,但是随着印度实力的增加,制衡目标很快就转为中国.20世纪90年代以来,印度以小多边为外交工具实施制度制衡的历程可以分为三个阶段,每个阶段制衡的侧重与特点不同,给印度带来的收益也不尽相同.当下印度正通过参与美国主导的同盟式小多边对中国实施排他性制度制衡,通过这种排他性制度制衡,印度在靠拢美国等西方国家的联盟体系、树立全球南方国家领袖形象和遏制中国外交空间等方面均有收效.这种小多边外交一定程度上弥补了印度现阶段实现“全球领导大国”这一角色的硬实力差距.总体上看,印度的小多边外交具有明显的针对性、投机性、依附性,甚至也有悖于印度自己提出的“改革的多边主义”.印度通过三个阶段的小多边外交在双边/多边、地区、全球层面取得一定成效,但是从长远看小多边外交尤其是当下印度参与的排他性封闭式小多边与印度追求的大国地位是背离的,这就构成了手段与目标以及短期利益和长远利益的错位.这种战略错位决定了其制衡策略的局限性.This article argues that competition for rule-making power is a critical means through which India engages in major power competition,and that India deploys minilateral diplomacy as a key tool for achieving institutional balancing.In the period immediately following the Cold War,Pakistan was the initial focus of India's balancing.As India grew as a power,its focus quickly shifted to China.From the 1990s to the present,India's use of minilateral diplomacy as a means of achieving exdusive institutional balancing can be divided into three distinct phases,each with a different emphasis and yielding a different set of outcomes.Currently,India is participating in alliance-style minilateralism led by the United States as a means of achieving exclusive institutional balancing vis-a-vis China.This approach has yielded a number of outcomes,including:aligning India with the Western system of alliances;establishing India's image as a leader of the Global South;and constraining China'sdiplomatic space.This minilateralism has in part helped India compensate for its shortcomings vis-a-vis hard power as it seeks to achieve a global leadership role as a state.While so,India's minilateralism is clearly targeted,opportunistic and dependent,even contradicting India's own efforts to promote a"reformed multilateralism".India has achieved certain successes at the bilateral and multilateral,regional and global levels through three subsequent phases of minilateral diplomacy,but in the long run,this blend of exclusive and closed minilateralism runs counter to India's ambitions as a great power.This misalignment between means and ends,and short and long-term interests will further determine the limits of its balancing strategy.

关 键 词：制度制衡 印度 小多边外交 排他性制衡 包容性制衡 

分 类 号：D835.1[政治法律—政治学]