印度莫迪政府反恐政策工具化转向——基于新古典现实主义的解释  

Explaining the Instrumental Shift in the Modi Government's Counter-Terrorism Policy:A Neoclassical Realist Perspective

作　　者：李益斌 胡宋达 Li Yibin;Hu Songda

机构地区：[1]兰州大学印度研究中心 [2]兰州大学政治与国际关系学院

出　　处：《南亚研究》2024年第2期123-152,157,158,共32页South Asian Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“基于大数据驱动的未来十年中国周边恐怖主义风险及应对研究”(项目编号:22CGJ001);2024年度兰州大学“中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金”文科振兴计划B类团队项目(青苗工程)“中国海外利益涉恐风险评估体系的构建及在周边地区的应用”(项目编号:2024lzujbkyqm017)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：近年来印度国内的恐怖主义活动整体有所缓和,但莫迪政府的反恐政策却呈现出更加显著的工具化转向,此现象值得深入探究.本文借助第三类新古典现实主义模型搭建解释框架,将中美印互动的刺激作为自变量,因变量为印度反恐政策工具化,中巴合作深化和巴基斯坦国内恐怖主义的复杂性是结构性调节因素,而印度国内决策层和社会层的四个支持因素是中介变量.该解释框架连接起印度国内政治与国际体系二者的关系,表明莫迪政府反恐政策工具化不仅意在实现对国内资源的控制与整合,而且更是为了满足其对全球性领导大国地位的追求.根据该解释框架,2024年印度大选后印度反恐政策的工具化转向不会出现明显收缩,甚至有持续强化的可能.这对印度国内宗教矛盾、南亚地区安全形势以及中国海外利益保护均产生不容忽视的影响.In recent years,challenges related to terrorism in India have eased to an extent,while the Modi government has moved to make instrumental changes in the country's counter-terrorism policy.These trends need to be carefully assessed.This article borrows from a type three neoclassical realist model to build an explanatory framework in this direction,featuring the instrumentalization of India's counter-terrorism policy as the dependent variable,and shocks from Sino-U.S.-India interactions as the independent variable.Meanwhile,the deepening of China-Pakistan Cooperation and the complexity of domestic terrorism in Pakistan are both treated as structural and as moderating factors.Additionally,four supporting elements at the domestic decision-making level and at the societal level in India are treated as intermediary variables.The explanatory framework links domestic politics in India with the international system,indicating thattthe Modi government's instrumentalization of counter-terror policy aims not only to control and consolidate national resources,but further to fulfill India's aspirations visa-vis global leadership.According to the framework,the instrumental shift in India's counter-terror policy is unlikely to change following the 2024 general election and may even continue to deepen.This has significant implications for domestic religious conflict,the security situation in South Asia and the protection of China's overseas interests.

关 键 词：莫迪政府 反恐政策 反恐工具化 新古典现实主义 

分 类 号：D835.1[政治法律—政治学]