尹锡悦政府“中期考核”失利的原因及影响  

The Causes and Impacts of Yoon Suk-yeol Administration's"Mid-Term Assessment"Failure

作　　者： Han Bada(School of International Studies,Renmin University of China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学国际关系学院

出　　处：《当代韩国》2024年第2期81-96,共16页Contemporary Korea

摘　　要：在2024年4月的韩国第22届国会议员选举中,包括共同民主党在内的在野党势力取得了压倒性胜利。这意味着朝小野大的局面将继续贯穿尹锡悦政府的剩余任期。在此次选举中,总统亲信丑闻、改革政策、经济政策、外交政策等导致的负面舆论扩散使得民众对尹锡悦政府的反感情绪不断加剧,甚至出现了政权审判的氛围。新兴的反对尹锡悦的在野党(祖国革新党)高举“政权审判”旗帜,使得韩国国内的这种氛围愈演愈烈,并最终帮助在野党大获全胜。此选举结果将对尹锡悦政府的国内外政策产生重大影响。在朝小野大局面持续的情况下,尹锡悦政府在韩国国内推进的主要政策将不可避免地面临被调整或取消。而这一趋势也很可能会减弱尹锡悦政府及其执政党的影响力,引发所谓“跛脚鸭”现象。鉴于此,尹锡悦可能会继续维持“全球枢纽国家”外交政策基调,并更加努力地在外交政策而非国内政治领域追求政绩。In April 2024,the ROK held its 22nd National Assembly Election,where opposition forces,including the Democratic Party,achieved an overwhelming victory.Consequently,the trend of a weakened ruling party and a Divided Government is expected to continue throughout the remainder of President Yoon Suk-yeol's term.In this election,negative public opinion spread due to scandals involving presidential confidants,reform policies,economic policies,and foreign policies,which intensified the public's disdain for the Yoon administration,even creating an atmosphere of a trial of the regime.The emergent opposition party(Rebuilding Korea Party),campaigning under the banner of"governmental judgment",intensified this sentiment,leading to their decisive electoral win.The outcome of these elections is likely to impact both domestic and foreign policies of the Yoon administration.With the strengthened Divided Government,major domestic policy initiatives of the Yoon administration will inevitably face adjustments or cancellations.This trend may diminish the influence of Yoon and his ruling party,leading to a so-called"lame duck"scenario.Consequently,Yoon may put more effort into achieving accomplishments in the realm of foreign policy rather than domestic politics,continuing to maintain the"global pivotal state"diplomacy.

关 键 词：韩国政治 国会议员选举 尹锡悦政府 政党政治 朝小野大 

分 类 号：D731.26[政治法律—政治学]