政企联合视角下应急医疗物资储备系统动力学仿真  

Dynamic Simulation of Emergency Medical Material Reserve System from the Perspective of Government Enterprise Alliance

作　　者：祁玉青[1] 李佳敏 姚懿轩 QI Yu-qing;LI Jia-min;YAO Yi-xuan(School of Economics and Management,Nanjing Tech University,Nanjing 211816,China)

机构地区：[1]南京工业大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京211816

出　　处：《系统工程》2024年第3期33-49,共17页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学青年基金资助项目(71701092);国家社会科学基金资助项目(20BGL025)。

摘　　要：以应急管理的时效性要求和成本节约性要求为目标,综合考虑了政府自建仓储、委托企业代储与企业生产能力储备三种应急物资储备模式。通过建立应急物资储备系统动力学仿真模型,从政企联合储备模式调控和病毒传播机制角度出发,定量评估应急医疗物资需求变化规律和政府应急物资储备管理的绩效。仿真结果表明:政企联合储备模式下应急物资储备总成本的峰值相对于政府单独储备或企业单独储备的情形更低;政府医疗物资需求量和物资储备的总成本及其波动性随着病毒接触传染率的增加而增加;政企联合储备物资的总成本对病毒传播规律的敏感度高于对储备模式和储备成本的敏感度。对政府而言,相对于储备模式和储备管理策略,控制疫情传播可以更快地降低应急物资的管理成本。Aiming at the timeliness and cost saving requirements of emergency management,three emergency material reserve modes are comprehensively considered:government self-built storage,entrusted enterprise agent storage and enterprise production capacity reserve.Through the establishment of the dynamic simulation model of emergency material reserve system,from the perspective of the regulation of the government enterprise joint reserve mode and the virus transmission mechanism,this paper studies the quantitative evaluation of the change rule of emergency medical material demand and the performance of the government emergency material reserve management.The simulation results show that:the peak value of the total cost of emergency materials reserve under the mode of government enterprise joint reserve is lower than that of the government reserve or the enterprise reserve;the total cost and volatility of government medical material demand and material reserve increase with the increase of virus contact infection rate;the sensitivity of the total cost of government enterprise joint reserve materials to the law of virus transmission is higher than that to the reserve mode and reserve cost.For the government,compared with the reserve mode and reserve management strategy,controlling the spread of the epidemic can reduce the management cost of emergency materials faster.

关 键 词：系统动力学 医疗物资 政企联合 物资储备 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术] F251[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]