CMIP6组合情景下中国未来人口空间均衡分布研究  

Future population spatial equilibrium distribution of China under CMIP6 scenarios

作　　者：何湘琦 顾高翔[1,2] 黄心妍 HE Xiangqi;GU Gaoxiang;HUANG Xinyan(Population Research Institute,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China;Education Demography Laboratory,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学人口研究所,上海200241 [2]华东师范大学教育人口实验室,上海200062

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2024年第6期1167-1183,共17页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(18ZDA132)。

摘　　要：人口空间均衡作为人口均衡在空间上的表现,对实现区域高质量发展具有重要意义,而作为当前全球面临的重大挑战,气候变化及其应对的政策路径将深刻影响未来世界的社会、经济和环境,进而改变中国的人口空间均衡分布格局。论文基于CMIP6中7个典型情景,将气候变化视角纳入人口空间均衡分布研究,基于“可能—满意度”模型提出了“等可能—满意度”的人口空间均衡概念,构建了多区域计算模型。在模型的基础上,论文对气候变化及应对气候变化的社会经济发展路径下,2035年和2050年中国分省人口空间均衡分布格局及其影响因素进行研究,结果显示:(1)达到人口空间均衡时,可能—满意度最高的情景是SSP1-1.9和SSP1-2.6,表明可持续发展路径最符合中国高质量发展的需求;最低的是SSP3-7.0,表明激烈的区域竞争将以低质量发展为代价。(2)受单因素制约时,相较于2020年真实的人口分布,SSP2-4.5情景2035年和2050年在人口空间均衡状态下东部地区和西部地区人口占比下降,中部地区和东北地区人口占比相对上升。与SSP2-4.5相比,其他情景的均衡人口分布呈现东升西降的趋势,此时粮食、林地和水资源等自然资源是形塑人口空间均衡分布格局的核心。(3)而在多因素综合模式下,SSP2-4.5情景在2035年和2050年达到均衡状态时,中西部地区资源优势被削弱,人口较2020年有所下降。相对单因素制约状态,多因素模式下整体的均衡人口分布格局进一步向东倾斜。其余情景人口分布相较于SSP2-4.5变化较小。(4)在所有情景下,胡焕庸线两侧的人口占比均不会发生大幅度变化,表明未来的气候变化及应对气候变化的社会经济发展路径并不影响胡焕庸线对中国人口地理的基本分界意义。研究结果可为中国未来积极应对气候变化、实现区域协调的高质量发展提供政策依据。As a spatial representation of population equilibrium,population spatial equilibrium is of great significance to the realization of high-quality development goal.As a major challenge in the world,climate change and the policy pathways to deal with it will profoundly affect the society,economy and environment of the world in the future,and then change the pattern of population spatial equilibrium distribution in China.This study examined the impact of climate change on population spatial equilibrium distribution based on seven typical scenarios in the CMIP6.The concept of"equal possibility-satisfiability"population spatial equilibrium distribution was proposed according to the possibility-satisfiability model,and a multi-region computational model was developed.Based on this model,this study explored the spatial equilibrium distribution pattern of China's population by province in 2035 and 2050 and its constraints under the pathways of climate change and social and economic development in response to climate change.The results show that scenarios with the highest possibility-satisfiability values are SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6,indicating that sustainable development best serves the needs of high-quality population development of China in the future.Conversely,the lowest possibilitysatisfiability value is found under SSP3-7.0,suggesting that human development may not be sustainable in the face of the twin challenges of economic growth and climate change,and the fierce inter-regional competition will reduce the quality of development.With the single-factor constraint,in reaching spatial equilibrium distribution of population under SSP2-4.5,compared with the provincial population distribution of China in 2020,the equilibrium population proportions in the northeastern and central provinces increase the most,with relative decrease in the eastern and western provinces.The equilibrium population distributions under the other scenarios demonstrate an increasing trend in the east and a decreasing trend in the west when compared

关 键 词：人口空间均衡 可能—满意度 CMIP6情景 共享社会经济路径 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] C924.2[社会学—人口学]