江苏省城市土地开发与碳排放绩效耦合关系  

Coupling Relationship Between Urban Land Development and Carbon Emission Performance in Jiangsu Province

作　　者：冯新惠 李艳[1] 余迩 杨佳钰 雷凯歌 FENG Xinhui;LI Yan;YU Er;YANG Jiayu;LEI Kaige(School of Public Affairs/Institute of Land Science and Property,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,Zhejiang,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学公共管理学院/土地科学与不动产研究所,浙江杭州310058

出　　处：《经济地理》2024年第5期161-171,共11页Economic Geography

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目(22YJAZH055);国家自然科学基金项目(42271261);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金。

摘　　要：解析城市土地开发与碳排放绩效的耦合关系,对于实现土地开发与碳减排的良性互动具有重要意义。文章以江苏省13个地级及以上城市为例,通过构建评价指标体系量化各市2003—2021年城市土地开发指数,运用超效率SBM模型评估其碳排放绩效;继而采用耦合协调模型与脱钩模型分析城市土地开发指数与碳排放绩效的耦合关系,并用灰色关联模型识别了影响二者协调发展的关键因素。结果表明:(1)2003—2021年,江苏的平均城市土地开发指数先下降后上升,各市间的差距不断缩小。(2)江苏的平均碳排放绩效波动上升,在空间上呈现由“东高西低”向均衡发展转变的格局。(3)江苏城市土地开发与碳排放绩效的耦合协调度由2003年的0.531波动上升至2021年的0.642,且在2020年后稳定处于协调发展阶段。在研究时段后期,有9个城市处于协调发展阶段,南京、连云港和淮安处于磨合过渡阶段,常州处于失调衰退阶段。此外,强负脱钩与强脱钩是研究区的主要脱钩状态。(4)土地开发规模和经济化开发对耦合协调度的影响较大,土地社会化和生态化开发的影响则较弱。最后,根据城市土地开发各指标的影响程度,有针对性地提出了对策建议,可为促进城市土地低碳开发提供指导。Exploration of the coupling relationship between urban land development and carbon emission performance is significant for achieving a positive interaction between land development and carbon emission reduction.Taking Jiangsu Province as the research area,this paper constructs and measures the evaluation index system of urban land development in each city from 2003 to 2021,and evaluates its carbon emission performance using a super-efficient SBM model.It analyzes the coupling relationship between urban land development index and carbon emission performance,and identifies the key factors affecting their coordinated development by the means of grey correlation model.The results indicate that:1) From 2003 to 2021,the average urban land development index in Jiangsu Province experienced a process which was first decreasing and then increasing,the gap among cities narrows continuously.2) Jiangsu's average carbon emission performance showed a fluctuating upward trend and presented a spatial distribution pattern that changed from "high in the east of Jiangsu and low in the west of Jiangsu" to a balanced development.3) The coupling coordination degree between urban land development and carbon emission performance showed the fluctuating upward trend from0.531 in 2003 to 0.642 in 2021,and remained in the coordinated development stage after 2020.In the later stage of the research period,nine cities were in the coordinated development stage,Nanjing,Lianyungang,and Huai'an were in the transitional stage,and Changzhou was in the disorder decline stage.In addition,most of cities were in the coupling coordination states of strong negative decoupling and strong decoupling.4) The impacts of land development scale and economic development on the coupling coordination degree were relatively high,while the influences of land social and ecological development were relatively weak.Based on the impact degree of various indicators of urban land development,it proposes targeted policy recommendations to promote the low-carbon development o

关 键 词：城镇化 城市土地开发 碳排放绩效 耦合协调度 脱钩模型 低碳转型 协调发展 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济] F205