板集煤矿5煤层顶板离层临界值预测研究  

Prediction of the critical value of the top slab of the 5-seam coal bed in Banji Mine

作　　者：岳喜占 李迎富[2] 赵江梅 王国普 孙茂如 Yue Xizhan;Li Yingfu;Zhao Jiangmei;Wang Guopu;Sun Maoru(China Coal Xinji Energy Co.,Ltd.,Huainan 232001,China;School of Mining Engineering,Anhui University of Science and Technology,Huainan 232001,China)

机构地区：[1]中煤新集能源股份有限公司,安徽淮南232001 [2]安徽理工大学矿业工程学院,安徽淮南232001

出　　处：《煤炭与化工》2024年第6期1-6,13,共7页Coal and Chemical Industry

摘　　要：本研究旨在探讨板集煤矿5煤层顶板离层临界值的预测规律,并分析了各因素对其影响以及灰色系统理论在预测中的应用。通过敏感性分析,确定了影响顶板离层临界值的主要因素,排名如下:巷道宽度(h_(w))>直接顶厚度(h_(z))>老顶厚度(h_(j))>锚索长度(G_(j))>5煤厚度(h_(m))>开采深度(H)。进行了线性和非线性拟合,得出顶板离层临界值的函数关系。根据拟合曲线,计算出浅部和深部离层界限值分别为46 mm和27 mm,总离层界限值为73 mm。此外,利用灰色系统理论对377 d后的离层量进行了预测,采用GM(1,1)模型训练得到了灰色预测模型。预测结果表明,2号测点巷道顶板离层总量为65 mm,与预期值和顶板离层规律相符。综上所述,本研究通过敏感性分析明确了主要控制因素,并提出了针对性的措施,减小顶板离层量。同时,应用灰色模型进行离层预测,显示出在此领域具有一定的优势和应用潜力。该研究为煤矿安全生产提供了一种可行的预测方法。The aim of this study is to explore the predictive patterns of the roof caving critical value in the 5th coal seam of Banji Coal Mine,analyze the impact of various factors,and apply grey system theory in the prediction process.Through sensitivity analysis,we have identified the key factors influencing the roof caving critical value,ranked as follows:roadway width(h_(w))>immediate roof thickness(h_(z))>old roof thickness(h_(j))>anchor cable length(G_(j))>5th coal thickness(h_(m))>mining depth(H).Furthermore,linear and nonlinear fitting were performed to establish the functional relationships for the roof caving critical value.Based on the fitted curves,the critical values for shallow and deep roof caving were calculated as 46mm and 27mm,respectively,with a total critical value of 73mm.In addition,grey system theory was employed to predict the roof caving amount after 377 days,and a grey forecasting model was trained using the GM(1,1)model.The prediction results indicate that the total roof caving amount at the 2#measuring point is 65mm,which aligns with the expected values and roof caving patterns.In summary,this study,through sensitivity analysis,has clarified the primary controlling factors and proposed targeted measures to reduce roof caving.Furthermore,we applied the grey model for caving prediction,demonstrating its advantages and potential applications in this field.This provides a viable forecasting method for coal mine safety production.

关 键 词：顶板离层 临界值预测 灰色模型 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：TD327.2[矿业工程—矿井建设]