基于Logistic模型和SPC算法的关键技术识别与预测——以卫星互联网为例  

Identification and Prediction of Key Technologies Based on Logistic Model and SPC Algorithm:Taking Satellite Internet as an Example

作　　者：袁野[1,2] 王学聪[2] 朱浩 孙三山[4] YUAN Ye;WANG Xue-cong;ZHU Hao;SUN San-shan(Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications Network Power Research Foundation,Chongqing 400065,China;School of Economics and Management,Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Chongqing 400065,China;Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications Digital Economy Technology Innovation Research Center,Chongqing 400065,China;School of Physics and Electronic Engineering,Sichuan Normal University,Chengdu 610101,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆邮电大学网络强国研究基地,重庆400065 [2]重庆邮电大学经济管理学院,重庆400065 [3]重庆邮电大学数字经济科技创新研究中心,重庆400065 [4]四川师范大学物理与电子工程学院,四川成都610101

出　　处：《中国电子科学研究院学报》2024年第4期380-392,共13页Journal of China Academy of Electronics and Information Technology

基　　金：2023年度重庆市自然科学基金创新发展联合基金资助项目(CSTB2023NSC)。

摘　　要：识别关键技术有助于在制定技术和市场战略布局中获得先发优势,对我国经济发展、国家安全具有重要意义。文中提出一种融合生命周期与主路径分析的关键技术识别方法,是对已有的研究理论和方法的重要补充。首先,检索相关领域专利数据并进行技术划分;然后,综合运用Lo-gistic模型和SPC算法构建技术轨道,识别关键技术;接着,使用显性技术优势指数比较主要国家技术竞争态势;最后,结合关键技术与技术竞争态势绘制技术路线图,识别技术热点与前沿预测。以卫星互联网为例,阐述该方法的应用过程。研究结果表明,该方法能够较为准确识别出该领域关键技术,揭示全球技术竞争态势,有效实现技术热点识别和未来技术预测;识别出的卫星互联网关键技术,能够为国家发展政策制定与相关产业布局提供参考。Identifying key technologies helps to gain a first mover advantage in formulating technological and market strategic layouts,which is of great significance to China’s economic development and national security.This article proposes a key technology identification method that integrates lifecycle and main path analysis,which is an important supplement to existing research theories and methods.Firstly,retrieve patent data in relevant fields and divide them into different domains;Secondly,the Logistic model and SPC algorithm are comprehensively used to construct a technological trajectory and identify key technologies;Then,use the Explicit Technological Advantage Index to compare the technological competitiontrends of major countries;Finally,drawing a technology roadmap based on key technologies and techno-logical competition trends,identifying technology hotspots and frontier predictions.Taking satellite Inter-net as an example,the application process of this method is described.The research results indicate that this method can accurately identify key technologies in this field,reveal the global technological competi-tion situation,and effectively achieve technology hotspot identification and future technology prediction;The identified key technologies of satellite Internet can provide reference for national development policy formulation and relevant industrial layout.

关 键 词：关键技术 LOGISTIC模型 SPC算法 技术热点 技术预测 卫星互联网 

分 类 号：TN927[电子电信—通信与信息系统] G303[电子电信—信息与通信工程]