RCEP背景下中国内地对台湾地区贸易壁垒调查的潜在经济冲击研究  

A Study on the Potential Economic Impact of the Chinese Mainland’s Investigation ofTrade Barriers on Taiwan in the Context of the RCEP

作　　者：李月[1,2] 黄柯达 郑晓雪 LI Yue;HUANG Keda;ZHENG Xiaoxue(School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China;Graduate Institute for Taiwan Studies,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,Fujian)

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071 [2]厦门大学台湾研究中心,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《厦门大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2024年第4期77-89,共13页Journal of Xiamen University(A Bimonthly for Studies in Arts & Social Sciences)

基　　金：南开大学亚洲研究中心项目“新格局下两岸产业融合高质量发展研究”(AS2222);南开大学文科发展基金科学研究类项目“海峡两岸经济融合发展指数构建及影响因素研究”(ZB22BZ0209)。

摘　　要：长期以来,台湾地区对中国内地产品采取歧视性进口限制,2023年4月12日,商务部就此启动贸易壁垒调查。基于两岸双边贸易依赖程度,筛选出低—中—高三个强度的中国内地对台贸易反制产品组合,运用全球贸易分析模型(GTAP)设定10个不同的情景,分三步模拟中国内地对台贸易壁垒反制、RCEP效应叠加以及中国台湾当局可能的应对措施等多个情景对两岸经济的影响。研究发现:(1)果蔬产品、水产品、饮料及酒、加工食品、纺织品和钢铁产品可作为中国内地对台贸易反制的可行产品组合;(2)中国内地若采取进口限制的反制措施,将对台湾地区纺织品带来深重打击,就业将下降23.6%;农产品出口贸易亦将受到巨大冲击,水产品和果蔬产品的出口额将分别下降31.4%和47.3%,且绿营县市受到的冲击更大;(3)RCEP的生效将放大反制措施对中国内地的积极影响,消解反制措施对中国内地的负向冲击,台湾地区反之;(4)在对贸易壁垒调查的应对措施上,不论对于中国内地还是台湾地区而言,台湾地区取消对中国内地的进口限制均优于加入CPTPP。因此,两岸贸易互动应逐渐走向规范,在“九二共识”的共同政治基础上努力寻求加入RCEP是台湾地区应对贸易壁垒调查的有效途径,同时台湾地区应充分依托福建新路,积极推进两岸高质量融合。For a considerable period,Taiwan has imposed discriminatory import restrictions on Chinese mainland products.On April 12,2023,the Ministry of Commerce initiated an investigation into trade barriers concerning this matter.In this study,given the level of bilateral trade dependence across the Taiwan Strait,a product portfolio for Chinese mainland’s trade countermeasures against Taiwan is selected,categorized into three levels of intensity:low,medium,and high.The Global Trade Analysis Project(GTAP)is employed to simulate the impact on the cross-Strait economy under ten different scenarios,encompassing the effects of Chinese mainland’s trade barrier countermeasures,the influence of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP),and potential response measures from the Taiwan authorities.The research findings are as follows:(1)Fruit and vegetable products,aquatic products,beverages and wine,processed foods,textiles and steel products are identified as a feasible product portfolio for Chinese mainland’s trade countermeasures against Taiwan.(2)If the Chinese mainland implements import restrictions as countermeasures,it will severely impact Taiwan’s textile industry,leading to a 23.6%decline in employment.Additionally,Taiwan’s export of agricultural products will also be greatly affected,with a 31.4%and 47.3%decrease in the export value of aquatic products and fruit and vegetable products,respectively,exerting a more significant impact on counties and cities in the pan-green political camp.(3)The implementation of the RCEP will amplify the positive impact of countermeasures on the Chinese mainland while mitigating the negative impact,whereas the opposite effect is observed for Taiwan.(4)Regarding the response to trade barrier investigations,it is concluded that for both the Chinese mainland and Taiwan,it is more advantageous for Taiwan to lift import restrictions on the Chinese mainland rather than joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership(CPTPP).Therefore,it is re

关 键 词：贸易壁垒调查 台湾地区 RCEP GTAP模型 潜在经济冲击 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]