需求不确定下的突发疫情应急医疗设施动态布局  

Dynamic Emergency Medical Facilities Location for Epidemics under Uncertain Demand

作　　者：项寅 Yin Xiang(School of Business,University of Science and Technology of Suzhou,Suzhou 215009,China)

机构地区：[1]苏州科技大学商学院,江苏苏州215009

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2024年第6期129-139,共11页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(72104170);教育部人文社会科学基金青年项目(21YJC630141)。

摘　　要：疫情下的城市应急医疗设施布局是一类典型的需求不确定下的多阶段、多类型设施选址,以及资源分配和患者转运的集成优化问题,具有重要研究意义。针对该问题,首先,充分考虑了疫情演化的动态时变特征,采用滚动决策法(rolling-horizon approach)将整个疫情期划分为多个离散决策期,以确保应急决策可根据疫情演化进行实时的优化调整;其次,在每个决策期中又考虑了疫情下的真实需求值基于先前预测值随机扰动的情形,构建了一类涵盖方舱医院、定点医院选址并协同资源分配和患者转运的鲁棒优化模型,将其嵌入滚动决策框架并设计动态求解算法。最后,以2020年初新冠疫情为背景进行算例分析,验证了模型和算法的有效性。In recent years,various epidemics(such as SARS in 2003,H1N1 in 2009,MERS in 2012,Ebola in 2014,etc.)have frequently occurred around the world,causing serious casualties,economic losses and social panic.After the outbreak,how to quickly isolate the infected persons and cut off the source of infection is an effective way to reduce the spread of the epidemic.In reality,the Chinese government has adopted a"multi-level quarantine"strategy in its response to COVID-19 to ensure that infected people are isolated as quickly as possible.On the one hand,the government converts gymnasiums into makeshift hospitals to accept mild patients,and on the other hand,the government also opens designated hospitals to take seriously ill patients.In this context,how to dynamically locate the two types of medical facilities according to the spread trend of the epidemic,and optimize the related resource and patient allocation problems integrally is the key to effectively control the epidemic.Since the 21st century,emergency facility location problems has been widely concerned and deeply studied by scholars.However,existing studies mainly focus on natural disasters such as earthquakes.Although fruitful results have been achieved,relevant models and algorithms are basically limited to the pre-disaster and post-disaster stages,and the commonly used two-stage stochastic planning and two-stage robust optimization are not applicable to the dynamic decision-making requirements of epidemic prevention and control.Compared with natural disasters,the evolution of the epidemic has dynamic and time-varying characteristics,which brings new challenges to the medical facility location problem.In this context,the medical facility location problem under epidemics is addressed as a multi-period and multi-type facility location problem with uncertain demand,as well as the integrated optimization problem of resource allocation and patient transportation.To solve this problem,the dynamic and time-varying characteristics of epidemic evolution are firstly consid

关 键 词：疫情应急 设施选址 需求不确定 滚动决策 鲁棒优化 

分 类 号：O225[理学—运筹学与控制论] C935[理学—数学] X913[经济管理—管理学]