降低缴费率、人口政策调整与经济增长  

Reducing payment rate,population policy adjustment and economic growth

作　　者：杨华磊 汤小庆 范维强[3] YANG Hualei;TANG Xiaoqing;FAN Weiqiang(School of Public Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China;Hubei Entrepreneurship and Employment Research Center,Wuhan 430073,China;School of Economics and Management,East China Jiaotong University,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学公共管理学院,武汉430073 [2]湖北省创业与就业研究中心,武汉430073 [3]华东交通大学经济管理学院,南昌330013

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2024年第6期1731-1748,共18页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：湖北省高等学校哲学社会科学研究重大项目(21ZD011);中央高校基本科研业务费(2722022BY017)。

摘　　要：面对经济下行的压力,为减轻企业负担,激发经济活力,国家提出降低企业养老保险缴费率方案.为精确回答企业养老保险缴费率下调至16%对未来经济增长的影响,本文采用两部门的动态一般均衡模型,基于现实可行参数进行模拟分析.结果表明:在2019–2050年间,若企业养老保险缴费率降至16%,未来历年潜在经济增长率平均提升0.076%,但进一步降低费率的效果趋于减弱;若考虑到降费的多重效应,缴费率下调将对养老保险基金财务状况造成不利影响.鉴于降低缴费率至16%对经济增长的提升效果有限,对养老保险基金财务状况产生负面影响,且进一步下调费率的效果趋于减弱,本文试图寻找推动中国经济增长的其他动力引擎.根据模拟研究,在降低缴费率至16%的背景下,提高生育水平将在短期内轻微降低潜在GDP增长率,但长期将显著提升未来潜在GDP增长率;推进城镇化在短期内提升潜在GDP增长率,但长期效果将减弱;无论是短期还是长期,延迟退休均能提升未来潜在GDP增长率,且逐步延迟退休和即时延迟退休的长期效果趋于一致.In the face of the downward pressure of the economy,to reduce the burden of enterprises and stimulate economic vitality,the state proposed to reduce the payment rate of enterprise endowment insurance.In order to accurately answer the impact of reducing the payment rate of enterprise endowment insurance to 16%on the future economic growth,this paper uses the dynamic general equilibrium model of two sectors and carries out simulation analysis based on realistic feasible parameters.The results show that:From 2019 to 2050,if the enterprise endowment insurance contribution rate drops to 16%,the potential economic growth rate over the years will increase by 0.076%,but the effect of further reducing the rate tends to weaken;If the multiple effects of the fee reduction are taken into account,the reduction of the payment rate will have an adverse impact on the financial status of the pension fund.In view of the limited effect of reducing the payment rate to 16%on economic growth,the negative impact on the financial status of the pension fund,and the weakening effect of further reducing the rate.This paper attempts to find other driving forces to promote China’s economic growth.According to the simulation study,while reducing the payment rate to 16%,improving the fertility level will slightly reduce the potential GDP growth rate in the short term,but in the long run,it will significantly increase the potential GDP growth rate in the future.Promoting urbanization can improve the potential GDP growth rate in the short term,but the long-term effect will be weakened.Whether in the short term or the long term,delayed retirement can improve the potential GDP growth rate in the future,and the long-term effects of gradually delayed retirement and immediate delayed retirement tend to be the same.

关 键 词：养老保险缴费率 经济增长率 动态一般均衡模型 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学]