2013~2020年甘肃省PM_(2.5)健康负担的时空变化趋势及驱动力  

Spatiotemporal Trends and Driving Factors of PM_(2.5)-related Health Burden in Gansu Province,China from 2013 to 2020

作　　者：廖琴[1,2] 李勇 陶燕 LIAO Qin;LI Yong;TAO Yan(Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems(Ministry of Education),College of Earth and Environmental Science,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China;Key Laboratory of Environmental Pollution Monitoring and Disease Control,Ministry of Education,Guizhou Medical University,Guiyang 550025,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学资源环境学院,西部环境教育部重点实验室,兰州730000 [2]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,兰州730000 [3]贵州医科大学环境污染与疾病监控教育部重点实验室,贵阳550025

出　　处：《环境科学》2024年第7期3893-3902,共10页Environmental Science

基　　金：甘肃省重点研发计划项目(21YF5FA109);中国科学院青年创新促进会项目(2022434);甘肃省青年科技基金计划项目(20JR5RA574)。

摘　　要：为评估大气污染防治行动计划以来,甘肃省PM_(2.5)相关健康影响的时空变化趋势及其驱动因素,应用最新的全球暴露死亡模型(GEMM)估算了2013~2020年甘肃省归因于PM_(2.5)的健康负担,并通过因素分解法进一步探讨了PM_(2.5)归因死亡长期变化的主要原因.结果表明,2013~2020年,甘肃省人口加权PM_(2.5)浓度下降了34.57%,暴露于PM_(2.5)年均浓度超过35μg·m^(-3)的人口比例从72.89%大幅下降至11.61%.研究期间,甘肃省PM_(2.5)归因死亡人数从12 826(95%CI:7 840~17 408)人下降至9 814(95%CI:6 407~13 036)人,下降了23.48%;其中,缺血性心脏病的归因死亡人数有所增加(12.11%),而中风、慢性阻塞性肺病、肺癌和下呼吸道感染的归因死亡人数呈下降趋势;60岁及以上人群的归因死亡人数占80%以上;中东部地区的PM_(2.5)归因死亡人数显著高于河西地区,且大部分地区呈下降趋势;人口规模、年龄结构、基线死亡率和PM_(2.5)浓度在归因死亡人数变化中的贡献分别为-1.26%、16.16%、-9.84%和-28.55%,人口老龄化和PM_(2.5)浓度降低是PM_(2.5)归因死亡增加和减少的主要因素.甘肃省积极的清洁空气政策减轻了PM_(2.5)污染造成的健康负担,但在人口老龄化加剧的趋势下,未来需要大幅降低PM_(2.5)浓度才能避免更多的归因死亡.To evaluate the spatiotemporal trends and drivers of PM_(2.5)-related health effects in Gansu Province since the implementation of the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan,the latest global exposure mortality model(GEMM)was adopted to estimate the health burden attributable to PM_(2.5) in Gansu Province from 2013 to 2020.The factor decomposition method was used to further quantify the main causes of the long-term changes in deaths attributable to PM_(2.5) pollution.The results showed that from 2013 to 2020,the population-weighted PM_(2.5) concentration in Gansu Province decreased by 34.57%,and the proportion of people exposed to areas with an annual average PM_(2.5) concentration exceeding 35μg·m^(−3) decreased significantly from 72.89%to 11.61%.Moreover,the number of attributable deaths in Gansu Province declined from 12826(95%CI:7840-17408)in 2013 to 9814(95%CI:6407-13036)in 2020,indicating a decrease of 23.48%.Attributable deaths from stroke,chronic obstructive pulmonary disease,lung cancer,and lower respiratory infection declined,whereas deaths from ischemic heart disease increased by 12.11%.Notably,individuals aged 60 years and older accounted for more than 80%of all age-related deaths.The number of deaths attributable to PM_(2.5) in central and eastern Gansu Province was significantly higher than that in the Hexi region,and most regions showed a downward trend.The contribution of the total population,age structure,baseline mortality rate,and PM_(2.5) concentration to the change in PM_(2.5)-related deaths was−1.26%,16.16%,−9.84%,and−28.55%,respectively.Overall,population aging and a decrease in PM_(2.5) concentration were the main factors contributing to the increase and decrease in PM_(2.5)-related deaths,respectively.The active clean air policies in Gansu Province have reduced the health burden caused by PM_(2.5) pollution,but with the trend of population aging,a significant reduction in PM_(2.5) concentration will be needed in the future to avoid more attributable deaths.

关 键 词：PM_(2.5) 过早死亡 GEMM模型 驱动因素 健康效益 

分 类 号：X513[环境科学与工程—环境工程]