国际制裁会冲击农产品进口供给吗——“非故意后果”的再检验  

Will International Sanctions Affect the Import Supply of Agricultural Products:Retest of“Unintended Consequences”

作　　者：刘雪梅 董银果[3] LIU Xuemei;DONG Yinguo

机构地区：[1]杭州师范大学阿里巴巴商学院 [2]杭州师范大学浙江省城市治理研究中心(杭州国际城市学研究中心) [3]华东理工大学商学院

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2024年第6期49-65,共17页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：浙江省教育厅一般项目(Y202249989);教育部人文社会科学规划项目(23YJA790017);2024年浙江省哲学社会科学规划部门合作专项研究课题。

摘　　要：国际制裁作为一国外交政策有目标的强制性手段,是否会对农产品贸易这一非目标领域产生“非故意后果”的争论始终存在。在全球贸易政治化趋势下,科学评估国际制裁对农产品进口供给的影响具有重要的现实意义。文章研究发现:(1)国际制裁会对农产品进口供给造成“非故意后果”,且这一“非故意后果”在时间序列上呈现持续减弱趋势,在空间上受俱乐部效应影响则被强化。(2)国际制裁对中国农产品进口供给的“非故意后果”高于世界平均水平,但不危及进口粮食安全;国际制裁的俱乐部效应显著抑制了中国农产品进口供给,但国际制裁对中国不存在域外效应。为此,中国应逐步降低对主要制裁国重要农产品的进口依存度,构建多层次友好型朋友圈以降低国际制裁对农产品进口供给的“非故意后果”。The debate over whether international sanctions,as a coercive and targeted means of a country's foreign policy,have“unintended consequences”in non-targeted field of agricultural trade has always existed.Under the trend of global trade politicization,it is of great practical significance to scientifically evaluate the impact of international sanctions on the import supply of agricultural products.The research findings of this paper show that:(1)international sanctions will have“unintended consequences”on the import supply of agricultural products,and these“unintended consequences”show a continuous weakening trend in the time series,while being strengthened by club effect in space;(2)the“unintended consequences”of international sanctions on the import supply of China's agricultural products are more significant than the world average,but do not endanger the security of imported food;club effect of international sanctions significantly inhibits the import supply of China's agricultural products,but international sanctions have no extraterritorial effect on China.Therefore,China should gradually lower its import dependence on the important agricultural products from major countries which implement sanctions,and build a multi-level friendly circle of friends to reduce the“unintentional consequences”of international sanctions on the import supply of agricultural products.

关 键 词：国际制裁 农产品进口 粮食安全 俱乐部效应 域外效应 

分 类 号：F752.6[经济管理—国际贸易]