结合自下而上和自上而下方法的中国陆地碳汇估算  

Estimates of China’s Terrestrial Carbon Sinks Using both Bottom-up and Top-down Approaches

作　　者：张志枨 王训梅 王军 阎然 才其骧 何维[1,2] 居为民 ZHANG Zhicheng;WANG Xunmei;WANG Jun;YAN Ran;CAI Qixiang;HE Wei;JU Weimin(International Institute for Earth System Science,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023;Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology/Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural Resources/School of Geography and Ocean Science,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029)

机构地区：[1]南京大学国际地球系统科学研究所,南京210023 [2]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院/自然资源部国土卫星遥感应用重点实验室/江苏省地理信息技术重点实验室,南京210023 [3]中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学与地球物理流体动力学数值模拟实验室,北京100029

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2024年第3期229-242,共14页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金42141005;江苏省自然科学基金BK20221449。

摘　　要：利用自下而上的生态系统过程模型BEPS和VEGAS以及自上而下的OCO-2 v10 MIP中多个大气反演优化结果,评估了中国2015~2019年碳汇规模及其空间分布,并结合中国四大地理分区边界和土地利用数据,进一步梳理了中国四大分区以及森林、草地、灌丛和农田4种主要生态系统的碳汇强度。总体上,2015~2019年期间,中国陆地碳汇呈现出东南高西北低的空间分布格局,BEPS、VEGAS和OCO-2 v10 MIP模型中估算的年均碳汇分别为0.38±0.04 Pg(C)a^(-1)、0.22±0.03 Pg(C)a^(-1)和0.54±0.05 Pg(C)a^(-1),这表明自上而下和自下而上的估计之间存在一定的差异。在夏季(6~8月),中国陆地生态系统对CO_(2)的吸收最强。在区域碳汇统计上,BEPS和OCO-2 v10 MIP的集合平均结果一致显示中国南方地区碳汇规模最大,而VEGAS表明中国北方地区碳汇较强。另外,BEPS和OCO-2 v10 MIP的集合平均结果表明,森林生态系统碳汇最强,强度分别为0.21±0.02 Pg(C)a^(-1)(47.2%)和0.26±0.02 Pg(C)a^(-1)(46.0%)。VEGAS则显示森林生态系统碳汇为0.06±0.04 Pg(C)a^(-1)(23.9%),略低于农田生态系统。总体而言,森林生态系统是中国显著的碳汇区域,但不同方法欲得到一致的碳汇分布和强度仍任重道远。The bottom-up terrestrial biosphere models,Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator(BEPS),and VEgetation-Global-Atmosphere-Soil version(VEGAS),along with top-down optimization results from multiple atmospheric inversions in the OCO-2 v10 MIP were used to assess the size and spatial distribution of China’s carbon sinks during 2015-2019.Additionally,combined with the boundaries of the four major geographic divisions in China and land-use data,the carbon sink intensities of the four major ecosystems-forests,grasslands,shrublands,and croplands-were further clarified.Overall,China’s terrestrial carbon sink exhibited a spatial distribution characterized by higher uptake in the southeast and lower uptake in the northwest during 2015-2019.The annual average carbon sinks estimated by BEPS,VEGAS,and OCO-2 v10 MIP models were 0.38±0.04 Pg(C)a^(-1),0.22±0.03 Pg(C)a^(-1),and 0.54±0.05 Pg(C)a^(-1),respectively,demonstrating convergence between the top-down and bottom-up estimates.During the summer months(Jun-Aug),China’s terrestrial ecosystems exhibited the highest capability for CO_(2) uptake.In terms of regional carbon uptake,BEPS and the ensemble average result from OCO-2 v10 MIP consistently indicated that the southern region of China had the largest carbon sink size.Conversely,VEGAS revealed that the northern region of China exhibited a larger carbon sink.Additionally,BEPS and the ensemble average result from OCO-2 v10 MIP indicated that the forest ecosystems had the largest carbon sinks,with intensities of 0.21±0.02 Pg(C)a^(-1)(47.2%)and 0.26±0.02 Pg(C)a^(-1)(46.0%),respectively.However,VEGAS showed a lower carbon sink of 0.06±0.04 Pg(C)a^(-1) for the forest ecosystems(23.9%),slightly lower than that of the crop ecosystems.In summary,the forest ecosystems emerged as significant carbon sinks in China.Nevertheless,achieving consistency in the distribution and intensity of carbon sinks using various methods remains a substantial challenge.

关 键 词：中国碳汇 陆地生态系统 生态系统模型 大气反演 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]