全球气候变化和人类活动对潘家口流域径流影响的研究  

The quantitative study of the impact of global climate change and human activities on the runoff in the Panjiakou basin

作　　者：鲁菲儿 王冰[1] 陈旭 LU Feier;WANG Bing;CHEN Xu(Tianjin Agricultural University,Tianjin 300380,China)

机构地区：[1]天津农学院,天津300380

出　　处：《北京水务》2024年第3期66-72,共7页Beijing Water

摘　　要：全球气候变化和人类活动影响了潘家口水库以上流域的径流量,导致入库径流量呈减小趋势,威胁了下游供水安全。为了定量分割出气候变化和人类活动对径流量的影响程度,构建反映潘家口流域特性的气象-土壤-水文数据库和SWAT水文模型,对1960-2017年间潘家口流域径流量进行了分析。1960-2017年,潘家口流域径流量呈显著下降趋势,并在1980年发生突变;变化期(1980-2017年)内,全球气候变化和人类活动的贡献率分别为36.20%和63.80%。1960-2017年,潘家口流域径流量同时受到气候变化和人类活动的影响,人类活动因素的贡献率大于气候变化,是导致流域径流减少的主要因素。Global climate change and human activities had affected the runoff in the Panjiakou Reservoir basin,which led to a decreasing trend in the inflow runoff of the reservoir and a threaten in downstream water supply security.In order to quantitatively separate the influence of climate change and human activities on runoff,a meteorological-soil-hydrological database reflecting the characteristics of the Panjiakou basin and the SWAT hydrological model were constructed to analyze the runoff in the Panjiakou basin from year 1961 to 2017.The runoff in the Panjiakou basin decreased significantly from year 1961 to 2017,with a breakpoint occurring in 1980.During the change period from1980 to2017,the contributions of global climate change and human activities were 36.20% and 63.80%,respectively.Therefore,the runoff in the Panjiakou basin from 1960 to 2017 was influenced by both climate change and human activities,with the contribution rate of human activities exceeding that of climate change.This main factor led to the reduction in basin runoff.

关 键 词：全球气候变化 人类活动 径流量 SWAT 潘家口流域 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]