石家庄暴雨时空分布特征及灾情评估  

Spatial-temporal Distribution Characteristics and Disaster Evaluation of Rainstorm in Shijiazhuang

作　　者：赵煊[1,2,4] 李朝华[1] 韩子霏 张立霞[1,2] 尚可 ZHAO Xuan;LI Chaohua;HAN Zifei;ZHANG Lixia;SHANG Ke(Shijiazhuang Meteorological Administration,Shijiazhuang 050081,China;Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education for Meteorological Disaster,Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD),Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210000,China;Heibei Climate Center,Shijiazhuang 050021,China;School of Civil Aviation,Xi’an Aeronautical Institute,Xi’an710077,China)

机构地区：[1]石家庄市气象局,石家庄050081 [2]气象灾害教育部重点实验室-气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心(南京信息工程大学),南京210000 [3]河北省气候中心,石家庄050021 [4]西安航空学院民航学院,西安710077

出　　处：《河南科学》2024年第7期1019-1027,共9页Henan Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42205037);南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室-气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心联合开放课题(KLME202209);西安航空学院校级科研基金项目(2021KY0211)。

摘　　要：基于石家庄市2015—2021年暴雨洪涝灾情资料数据,以及17个国家站及268个区域自动气象站数据,采用气候统计诊断方法分析了石家庄暴雨时空分布的气候特征,并利用灰色关联分析及逐步回归方法,建立了石家庄市暴雨灾情评估及预评估模型.结果表明:①石家庄暴雨频次及强度随时间呈递增趋势,暴雨强度年际变化增大且极端性增强.②石家庄西北部暴雨频次多、强度大,西南部暴雨频次相对较少,但强度最大,其中平山、井陉为大暴雨、特大暴雨高发区,复杂的地理环境使该地区发生暴雨洪涝灾害的风险增加.③由灰色关联分析方法确定的暴雨灾情等级正确率83.33%,能够反映实际暴雨灾情等级,且有利于客观区分同一等级内暴雨灾情大小.④基于气象因子,利用逐步回归方法建立的暴雨灾情评估及预评估模型正确率可达68.75%.The climatic characteristics of spatial and temporal distribution of rainstorm in Shijiazhuang are analyzed by using climate statistical diagnosis method,and the evaluation and pre-evaluation model of rainstorm disaster is established through grey correlation analysis and stepwise regression method,based on the data of rainstorm and flood disaster in Shijiazhuang from 2015 to 2021,as well as the data of 17 national weather stations and 268 regional automatic weather stations.The results indicate that:①The frequency and intensity of rainstorm in Shijiazhuang increase with time.The interannual variation and extremity of rainstorm intensity increase.②The frequency and intensity of rainstorm in the northwest of Shijiazhuang are high.The frequency of rainstorm in the southwest of Shijiazhuang is relatively small,but the intensity is the largest.Pingshan and Jingxing are the high incidence areas of heavy rainstorm and extremely heavy rainstorm.The complex geographical environment increases the risk of rainstorm and flood disasters in these areas.③The correct rate of the rainstorm disaster grade determined by the gray correlation analysis method is 83.33%,which can effectively reflect the actual rainstorm disaster grade and help to objectively distinguish the size of the rainstorm disaster in the same grade.④Based on meteorological factors,the rainstorm disaster evaluation and pre-evaluation model established by stepwise regression method has a correct rate of 68.75%.

关 键 词：暴雨 时空分布 灾情评估 灰色关联分析 逐步回归 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]