河南省生猪价格波动及影响因素分析  

Analysis on Price Fluctuation and Influencing Factors of Live Pig in Henan Province

作　　者：程春畅 王文海[1] 刘合兵[1] 尚俊平[1] CHENG Chunchang;WANG Wenhai;LIU Hebing;SHANG Junping(College of Information and Management Science,Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou 450046,China)

机构地区：[1]河南农业大学信息与管理科学学院,郑州450046

出　　处：《河南科学》2024年第7期1075-1085,共11页Henan Science

基　　金：河南省研究生教育改革与质量提升工程项目(YJS2023AL046);河南省现代农业产业技术体系(S2010-01-G04);河南省科技攻关项目(212102110204)。

摘　　要：近年来受非洲猪瘟及新冠肺炎疫情影响,生猪价格发生了剧烈波动,生猪相关产业的发展受到了巨大冲击.首先,对河南省2018年9月—2023年3月生猪月度价格波动特征进行探究,定性分析选取影响生猪价格的8个因素;其次,建立多元线性回归模型,对8个主要因素展开分析,得出影响生猪价格最主要的因素是仔猪、鸡肉、小麦麸和育肥猪配合饲料价格;第三,构建VAR模型实证分析4个主要因素对河南省生猪价格波动的影响程度.结果表明,影响生猪价格最主要的两大因素是仔猪价格和鸡肉价格,小麦麸和育肥猪配合饲料价格次之.最后,结合研究结论与现实情况,给出稳定生猪价格保持在合理范围的相关建议.In recent years,the African swine fever and COVID-19 pandemic have caused violent fluctuations in the price of live pigs,significantly impacting pig-related industries.First,the monthly price fluctuation characteristics of live pigs in Henan Province from September 2018 to March 2023 were examined,and eight factors affecting the price of live pigs were identified through qualitative analysis.Secondly,a multivariate linear regression model was established to analyze these eight factors.It concluded that the most important factors affecting the price of live pigs were the prices of piglets,chicken,wheat bran,and fattening pig compound feed.Thirdly,a VAR model was constructed to empirically analyze the influence of these four main factors on the price fluctuation of live pigs in Henan Province.The results showed that the two most important factors affecting the price of live pigs were the prices of piglets and chicken,followed by the prices of wheat bran and fattening pig compound feed.Finally,based on the research conclusions and the actual situation,relevant suggestions are provided for stabilizing the price of live pigs to maintain a reasonable range.

关 键 词：生猪价格 因素分析 多元回归分析 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]