不确定性视野下的人口研究与应对  

Population Studies and Responses in an Era of Rising Uncertainty

作　　者：张震[1] Zhang Zhen

机构地区：[1]复旦大学人口研究所,上海200433

出　　处：《华东师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2024年第4期103-115,180,181,共15页Journal of East China Normal University（Humanities and Social Sciences）

摘　　要：在当前全球不确定性因素不断增多的背景下,深入认识人口不确定性的性质、来源及其在人口预测与政策应对中的作用显得尤为重要。研究发现,人口不确定性是人口系统的内在规定性,且在现代社会诸多不确定性因素相互交织作用下,呈现出不断增大的趋势。虽然人口不确定性无法被完全消除,但我们可以在深化不确定性认识的基础上,采取积极的应对策略,将人口不确定性的不利影响控制在可知、可控的范围内,并充分发挥不确定性在多样性创造力上的潜力。在中国人口规模巨大的现代化进程中,充分利用技术、知识和治理的优势,可以构建具有灵活性、适应性的人口及相关政策体系,促进人口高质量发展。In an era of increasing global uncertainties,it is particularly important to gain a deeper understanding of the nature and sources of demographic uncertainty and its role in population projections and policy responses.It has been found that demographic uncertainty is an intrinsic attribution of the demographic system,and it tends to increase when it is intertwined with many uncertainties in modern society.Although demographic uncertainty cannot be completely eliminated,it is possible to deepen the understanding of uncertainty,effectively control the negative effects of demographic uncertainty within a knowable and controllable range,and give full play to uncertainty in the creativity of diversity.In the modernization process of China’s huge population,it is important to make full use of the advantages of technology,knowledge and governance to build a population and related policy system that is flexible and adaptable,so as to promote high-quality population development.

关 键 词：人口不确定性 人口转变 概率人口预测 政策规划 

分 类 号：C924[社会学—人口学]