基于三支决策和联系数的SFEP传递概率计算方法研究  

Study on calculation method of SFEP transfer probability based on three branch decision and connection number

作　　者：李莎莎 崔铁军 LI Shasha;CUI Tiejun(School of Environmental and Chemical Engineering,Shenyang Ligong University,Shenyang 110159,China)

机构地区：[1]沈阳理工大学环境与化学工程学院,沈阳110159

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2024年第7期2483-2489,共7页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52004120)。

摘　　要：为研究系统故障演化过程(System Fault Evolution Process,SFEP)中原因事件导致结果事件的传递概率,提出了一种基于三支决策和联系数的传递概率计算方法。根据三支决策思想将原因事件和结果事件划分为发生、不确定和不发生3种状态,将措施方案的作用划分为发生、不确定和不发生3种倾向;以联系数同异反分项系数分别代表上述3种状态和倾向,最终定量计算了传递概率范围。研究认为传递概率取决于原因事件的3种状态比例和措施方案的3种倾向比例。利用联系数的同异反分项系数分别描述了状态和倾向比例。总结了原因事件到结果事件状态的演化关系,形成了演化关系表。得到了导致结果事件3种状态的传递概率。以事件发生为目标,传递概率的最小值为导致结果事件发生的概率,最大值为前者加上不确定的概率。方法克服了原有传递概率计算面临的问题,其结果与实际情况相符。To study the transfer probability of the cause event leading to the result event in the System Fault Evolution Process(SFEP),a transfer probability calculation method based on three branch decisions and connection numbers is proposed.According to the three-branch decision,the cause event and result event are divided into three states of occurrence,uncertainty,and non-occurrence,and the action of the measure scheme is divided into three tendencies of occurrence,uncertainty,and non-occurrence;The partial coefficients of identity-discrepancy-contrary are used to represent the above three states and tendencies respectively.Based on the three states of causal events and the three tendencies of action plans,three different state probabilities of outcome events in different evolutionary processes are studied.It is believed that the transfer probability depends on the proportion of three states of the cause event and the proportion of three tendencies of the measuring scheme.The identity-discrepancy-contrary partial coefficient of the connection number is used to describe the state and tendency proportion respectively,summarize the evolution relationship from the cause event to the result event state,and form the evolution relationship table.Therefore,it is feasible to quantitatively calculate the transfer probability through the connection number and obtain the range of transfer probability by describing the qualitative situation of the evolution conditions of the three decision-making branches.And we obtain the transfer probability of the three states leading to the result event.With the event occurrence as the target,the minimum value of the transfer probability is the probability that results in the event,and the maximum value is the former plus the uncertain probability.The method overcomes the problems faced by the original transfer probability calculation,and the results are consistent with the actual situation.

关 键 词：安全科学技术基础学科 三支决策 联系数 系统故障演化过程(SFEP) 传递概率计算 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学]