普惠金融发展与居民储蓄行为——来自中国家庭金融调查的证据  

Inclusive financial development and household saving behavior:evidence from CHFS

作　　者：朱卿元 张永峰 宋从雅 魏维嘉 ZHU Qingyuan;ZHANG Yongfeng;SONG Congya;WEI Weijia(School of Economics,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China;Research Institute of the People's Bank of China,Beijing 100023,China;Business Management Department,Sichuan Branch of the People's Bank of China,Chengdu 610041,China)

机构地区：[1]南京大学经济学院,江苏南京210093 [2]中国人民银行金融研究所,北京100023 [3]中国人民银行四川省分行营业管理部,四川成都610041

出　　处：《产业经济研究》2024年第3期101-113,共13页Industrial Economics Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(20ZDA015);国家资助博士后人员研究计划(GZC20233085)。

摘　　要：在普惠金融快速发展叠加社会储蓄率长期居高不下的双重背景下,基于中国家庭金融调查数据检验了普惠金融对居民储蓄的边际影响和可能的作用机制,并探讨了数字经济在普惠金融与居民储蓄之间的调节作用。研究结果表明:普惠金融发展显著促进了居民储蓄总额的增加和储蓄率的提升,特别是与2017年相比,普惠金融发展在2019年带来的储蓄效应进一步扩大。具体作用路径有两条:一是“普惠金融发展—金融排斥缓解—储蓄增加”;二是“普惠金融发展—居民金融素养提高—储蓄增加”。进一步研究发现,数字经济在普惠金融发展促进居民储蓄行为中存在正向调节作用,普惠金融与数字经济的结合可以产生更大的储蓄扩张效应;同时,考虑政策时滞后发现,普惠金融发展在短期内更有可能促进居民的活期储蓄行为,而在长期则更有可能促进居民的定期储蓄行为。最后,由普惠金融发展引起的储蓄增加有效转化成了社会生产投资,有助于从生产端驱动经济增长;但由新增的储蓄转化成社会生产投资的幅度较低,仍有进一步提高的空间。The dual factors of the rapid development of inclusive finance and the long-term high social savings rate are the background for this study,which tests the marginal impact and possible mechanism of inclusive finance on household savings,and discusses the moderating role of digital economy using data from China Household Finance Survey.The results show that the development of inclusive finance significantly promotes household savings behavior.In particular,the savings effect of inclusive financial development in 2019 has further expanded compared with 2017.There are two specific action paths.First,"inclusive financial development-mitigation of financial exclusion-increased savings".Second,"inclusive financial development-improvement of financial literacy-increased savings".Further,the digital economy has a positive role in regulating the development of inclusive finance and promoting household savings behavior,and inclusive finance and the digital economy can together produce a greater expansion in savings.At the same time,given the policy lag,inclusive finance is more likely to promote residents'current savings in the short term and their regular savings behavior in the long term.Finally,the increased savings prompted by inclusive finance effectively transform to become investment in social production,helping to drive economic growth from the production side.However,the conversion to investment in social production from new savings is relatively low,and there remains room for improvement.

关 键 词：普惠金融 金融排斥 金融素养 居民储蓄 生产投资 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]