住房财富与城镇居民家庭储蓄——基于住房政策改革的实证分析  

Housing Wealth and Household Savings:Evidence from China's Housing Reform

作　　者：伏霖[1] 高洁 戴溪 姚懿荧 FU Lin;GAO Jie;DAI Xi;YAO Yi-ying

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学经济学院 [2]复旦大学管理学院 [3]广西大学经济学院

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2024年第7期3-14,31,共13页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“数字经济高质量发展的创新与治理协同互促机制研究”(项目编号:22&ZD070);国家社会科学重大项目“数字经济推动经济发展质量变革、效率变革、动力变革研究”(项目编号:22ZDA043);北京市社会科学基金规划项目“促进北京平台经济健康发展体制机制研究”(项目编号:23JJB019)。

摘　　要：21世纪以来,伴随着经济的发展,我国房价快速增长,住房财富成为家庭财富中最主要的部分之一,是家庭储蓄的重要影响因素。党的二十大报告中明确指出:“要着力扩大内需,增强消费对经济发展的基础性作用。”如何降低家庭储蓄,进而增进家庭消费,已成为学界和政府关注的重大课题。2006年起,政府陆续颁布了一系列住房政策,面积小于或等于90平方米住房的首付比例及税负大幅下降,造成住房价值增长率在90平方米左右出现间断。本文利用住房政策冲击造成的不连续性设计断点回归,使用中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,探究了住房财富对城镇居民家庭储蓄的影响。研究发现,意外的住房财富增加显著提高了居民的家庭总储蓄,这一影响在中年群体、背负债务的群体以及工作不稳定的群体中更加显著。因此,政府在进行住房政策改革的时候要密切关注政策对不同群体产生的影响。本文的实证发现对于扩大国内需求,培育更多经济增长动力源,实现高质量发展有着重要的意义。Since the 21st century,with the development of the economy and the rapid growth of the housing prices,housing wealth has become one of the most important parts of household wealth and an important factor influencing household savings in China.The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly states that we must focus on expanding domestic demand and enhancing the fundamental role of consumption in economic development.How to reduce household savings and then increase household consumption triggers great concern to the academia and the government.Since 2006,the Chinese government has successively promulgated a series of housing policies.The down payment ratio and tax burden of houses with an area of less than or equal to 90 square meters have dropped significantly,resulting in a discontinuity in the growth rate of housing value around 90 square meters.This paper applies discontinuity regression caused by housing policy shocks and uses data from the China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)to explore the impact of housing wealth on household savings of urban residents.This paper finds that the unexpected growth in housing wealth can significantly increase residents'total household savings.Additionally,the paper furhter illustrates that this effect is more significant among the middle-aged group,the group with debt,and the group with unstable jobs.Therefore,when the government carries out housing policy reform,it must pay more attention to the impact of the policy on different groups.The empirical findings of this paper have important policy implications for expanding domestic demand,fostering more drivers of economic growth,and achieving high-quality development.

关 键 词：住房财富 家庭储蓄 断点回归 

分 类 号：F202[经济管理—国民经济] F293